Spain and Italy raise risk premiums and markets ask for more money
- They are at the same level as when the COVID-19 crisis erupted, or even to a greater extent the risk premiums of Spain and Italy – the difference between the interests that both countries pay for their 10-year bonds and those paid by Germany. The large announcements of liquidity measures by the European Central Bank (ECB) or the European Union (EU) have only "reassured" the markets in a couple of weeks.
Neither the stimulus of the ECB, nor the packages of the US Federal Reserve, nor the measures announced by the Member States have succeeded in lowering the price of sovereign debt. While in Germany ten-year Italian bonds remain at negative interest rates (-0.45%), the Spanish bond is paid at 0.88%.
At the last auction this Tuesday, the Public Treasury has put EUR 2.950 billion in letters three and nine months in duration. Both types of bonds have risen, from negative to positive rates in nine months, from -0.395% paid in March to 0.039% paid this Tuesday.
Plot by El Salto:
The graph shows that the injection of EUR 750 billion announced by the ECB on 19 March to buy countries’ sovereign debt on the secondary market managed to reduce the Spanish risk premium by 40 points, to 108 points, and the Italian one by 71 points, to 196. But the "quiet" of the markets lasted little and they asked for more incentives and more money. March 26 was the turn of the United States. The EDF announced a series of measures worth $2.3 trillion (EUR 1.8 trillion) and caused risk premiums to fall back temporarily.
However, since then, markets continue to demand more and the risk premium has rebounded again, to levels prior to the incentives of 19 March. Spain's got 142 points on Tuesday, while Italy's got 251. This Thursday the chairmen of all the Member States meet to decide what new measures will be taken and how they will be financed across Europe, and the markets will send out a clear signal: they want a new injection.
Nor are the data on the ECB’s purchases expected by sovereign debt markets. According to the latest data from the European Central Bank (ECB), the entity chaired by Christine Lagarde has reduced its weekly purchases to EUR 20,513 million, half of what was purchased in the previous two weeks. It seems that this has not been enough for the financial sector.
While the Bank of England has announced that it will finance the British Government "without limits" and that the EDF will directly finance states and big cities, the Treaty on European Union prohibits the ECB from directly delivering money to states and ending blackmail on markets. This Thursday, the Presidents of the Member States will take decisions on how to relax risk premiums, but, in the light of the reaction of recent weeks, it does not seem that the exhausted prescriptions used by the ECB since 2012 will have any effect.
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