According to a document published this Monday by the Bank of Spain, economic activity in the Spanish State has fallen by 4.7% between January and March. It is estimated that by the end of the year the fall will be between 6.6% and 13.6%, depending on the conditions of the family home. To contextualize these percentages, it should be taken into account, for example, that in the period 2008-2013 the economy fell 9.5% of the economic recession suffered by the Spanish State. And, for example, in the 1993 economic crisis, 1%.

The hopes that the Government of Pedro Sánchez had placed so far in 2021 indicate that the one that will be lost this year will recover when it comes. However, the Spanish Government’s forecasts have put this approach on the head, as the economic activity expected to be recovered will not match what will be lost this year.

If measures are not taken, the working class of the Spanish State and, therefore, of Hego Euskal Herria can face a new and violent economic crisis: according to the forecasts of the Bank of Spain, the unemployment rate can reach between 18.3% and 21.7%, without taking into account the temporary employment regulation dossiers.

The coronavirus crisis will also affect the public deficit, which will be between 7% and 11% of Spain’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to the document. The debt, for its part, would be between 110 and 122 per cent of the Basque population. Of course, only the measures taken so far by the Spanish Government have been taken into account in these numbers and no provision has been made for how exceptional measures may be affected.

The French State, with hopes set in 2021

The Bank of France, for its part, announced earlier this month that it is planning to sink 6% of GDP between January and March. Since the beginning of the confinement, economic activity in the State has been reduced by 32% and, according to the governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, the GDP during the fifteen days of stay at home is reduced by 1.5%. Food and the pharmaceutical industry are the only ones resisting the coup. On the other side of the coin, the hospitality industry: it is practically on a pause.

This situation also affects the public deficit in the French State: It grows by 1% in every fortnight of confinement. “May 1968 may be the only thing that resembles this crisis in recent history, because then the French economy was also paralyzed for several weeks,” said the governor of the Bank of France.

Villeroy de Galhaus is confident that the growth of 2021 will draw a V-shaped graph for the French State, for which aid plans for employers and workers will be required.