Since the surveys, it has never been seen in Scotland: independence has a clear and permanent majority in time. The SNP nationalists who run the autonomous bodies are glad that this is the current "majority will". The victory of "no" in the 2014 referendum (55% "no" and 45% "yes") could undermine the path taken by the independentists, but it was not. In just six years, they have managed to reverse the situation, differentiating above all from the London policy on Brexit and the management of the pandemic. Today, if you look at the surveys, you'd win the yes, with a difference of about 10 percentage points.

Probably, the UK’s approval of Brexit in 2016 allowed independentists to reverse the 2014 defeat: Scotland was forced to leave the European Union, even though a clear 62% majority of its inhabitants opposed it. It must be borne in mind that one of the Unionists’ main arguments for voting against independence in 2014 was the need for Scotland to remain part of the United Kingdom in order to remain in the European Union. In any case, although Brexit has helped the independentists begin to change the situation, it does not explain everything that has happened. In fact, last December, in the British general elections, the independentists did not exceed 50% of the votes.

The "conflict of legitimacy" that emerged after the general elections has given new encouragement to the independentists: While Boris Johnson, who opposes a new referendum on self-determination, achieved a major victory throughout the UK, his party suffered an absolute defeat in Scotland, passing from 13 to 6 seats. The SNP, for its part, won 48 of the 59 seats in Scotland and, claiming that the situation "changed substantially" with Brexit, called for a new consultation on the matter. Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon summarised the situation as follows: "The mandate I have received from the citizens will not be respected by a party that has suffered a manifest defeat in Scotland." This democratic alley has fuelled the pro-independence sentiment that has grown steadily following these elections.

Prudence over chaos

The management of the coronavirus pandemic is a third factor that has been committed by the SNP. As reported by The Guardian, a politician from Johnson's same party has said that Nicola Sturgeon has managed to create a contrast between Boris Johnson's "prudent and community-driven" vision of his government and Boris Johnson's "chaotic market-dependent administration." From different points of view, the management of the pandemic has been and continues to be an important test for SNP nationalists. In fact, it has been the most important public policy issue that the Scottish Government has had to manage since it regained its powers in 1999. In addition, it has allowed citizens to compare the different strategies being developed in the United Kingdom and in Scotland. With a result that leaves no doubt: 70-75 per cent of the population of Scotland claims that the Government of Nicola Sturgeon is in line with crisis management, while the vast majority condemns Boris Johnson’s policies. Finally, Sturgeon has appeared everywhere in the first wave of the pandemic, appearing daily on television, and citizens received the message that it was he who managed the relevant information and not London.

In the face of this boom in the sense of independence, the Tories are beginning to be frightened. They realize that if the SNP wins the Scottish elections next May, it will be difficult for them to maintain their position against a new referendum. A little confused, they ask a group of conservative experts for advice. The report has been filtered and the Tories are advised to conduct a campaign with two objectives: If Scotland takes the path of independence it threatens to leave the European Union and makes many political concessions to the Scots so that they prefer to stay in the United Kingdom. Faced with the "no confrontation" promoted by unionists in 2014, the intention is that on this occasion the "no sweet" be defended. But, above all, behind all the official rhetoric, the Conservatives are taking power to hold a second referendum ...

Green New Deal

On the other hand, the Scottish Labour believed that they were well placed when last August they proposed a green ‘New Deal’ for Scotland. An ambitious and interesting plan. However, the excess was above the limits of the Scottish economy (especially the level of indebtedness). The plan, which intended to offer an alternative mobilizing discourse to the independence project, has become another argument in favor of the independentists. One third of the Scottish Labour voters would vote in favour of independence, according to the note. This situation is giving much to the party, which does not want to lose much politicized and that the young voters who are in favour of independence (among those aged 19-24, 79% are in favour of independence).

In this context, the SNP is the main favorite for the elections next May and Nicola Sturgeon could achieve its fourth consecutive term. It has promised to hold a new referendum in the next term of office, and in the spring it should specify how it will do so. He pointed out that "we are living the time to be a great ambition" and that "we must take into account Covid-19 to rethink how to do things", referring to the possibility of leaving aside the "self-sabotage" of Brexit in a hypothetical independent country to which, for example, it was aimed at establishing universal income.

As an editorial of the Weekly The Observer says with concern and in an appropriate manner, the independentists have something that unionists do not have: a country project that they are proud of.