COVID-19 reproduction rate: Far from the conditions for holding elections in the CAV
- The coronavirus outbreak in Ordizia has put this reproduction rate at 1.8 times higher than when Iñigo Urkullu called the Basque Parliament elections.
There are already 58 citizens who tested positive for coronavirus after performing the PCR test in relation to the Ordizia outbreak. Lehendakari, Iñigo Urkullu, stressed, however, that on Sunday the conditions for the autonomous elections are "specific cases" and "identified" of Ordizia.
On the contrary, if we look at what the leaders of the Basque Government have already said and at the rate of reproduction of Covid-19 (Rt), it does not seem that these elections can be held, or at least it would be doubtful. In fact, the reproduction rate is 1.8% in the CAV.
The Government of Spain made it a condition for decontainment that this rate is below 1, and that is precisely one of the reasons why the Health Advisor, Nekane Murga, moves to the first phase. When Rt=1 means that the pandemic has stabilized, as each infected person only infects another.
On 18 May, Iñigo Urkullu appeared before the media to denounce the emergency situation and to convene elections, taking into account, among others, three health documents. One of them is signed by the Deputy Health Advisor, Iñaki Berraondo, who has announced the resolution to end the extraordinary measures.
As explained, we were in the phase of “containment and decline” and there was no risk that “the epidemiological curve would return to an upward trend”. In fact, on 17 April, when the Basque Government set up the steering committee to deal with COVID-19, the reproduction rate stood at 1.75, then one month quickly dropped to 0.75.
Urkullu, asked by the journalists, explained at the hearing that he opted for the 12 July option, because epidemiological conditions and "forecasting reports based on mathematical modeling" allowed him to do so. But if the situation worsened, he made it clear that there was also a possibility that the elections would be held in September: “I take advantage of the two dates.”
As stated in the daily report on the epidemiological situation of coronavirus published by the Basque Government (pdf), we have regressed almost three months: The Rt is today, July 9, higher than when the board of directors was created to deal with covid-19, and doubles the rate that existed when the lehendakari called the elections.
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