The Santurtziarra Imanol Pradales will be the next president, the only one who has a clear answer between the questions of these elections. In addition, the PSE and PP will repeat or improve the previous results a little, and it remains to be clarified whether Sumar and We will get a representative. Although in recent years the sliding between two souls has been evident, few have understood the presentation of two lists that will lead to the bleeding of the vote.
So the things, the salt and the essence of the elections seems to be in the competition between the PNV and EH Bildu. Looking back, the former rower has a certain trainee advantage over the band led by Ima Garrastatxu. Apart from the exception of 1986, the PNV has always been the first force. Not only that, in seven of the twelve calls it has exceeded 40% of the vote, and in 11 the difference with the second force has been greater than 10%. In 2020, for example, he got almost twenty points to EH Bildu.
But let's come to the election competition this year. When political parties make a basic segmentation of the vote, they usually do the following distribution: faithful, received, weak, potential and remote voters. The key to success is to maintain the first three and attract potential. According to the Eitb Focus poll, EH Bildu will be the match that best activates these four voters. Together with the maintenance of the previous voters, the coalition led by Pello Otxandiano at CAV level, led by Pello Otxandiano, would get 10% of those who abstained in 2020, 16.3% of Podemos, 7.7% of the PNV and 4.7% of the PSE.
This is of great importance in Bizkaia, especially in the large urban areas where EH Bildu has weakened. In last year’s elections it grew especially in the Greater Bilbao, notably in several areas of the Left Margin. The municipality of Imanol Pradales is the most significant indicator of this change. In the 2011 municipal elections the PNV obtained 49.4% of the votes and Bildu 14% (15% adding Aralar). In 2023, on the other hand, the Jeltzales acquired 32% and the sovereign coalition 27%. Trends point to a new correlation of forces in the medium term.
Even though the strength of the PNV today has solid bases, its walls do not show the previous strength. Not keeping the distance of 10% with the second force would be a historic revolution that would leave the territory at the gates of a new political cycle. I would pay particular attention to Greater Bilbao because it will tell us whether EH Bildu has taken the potential vote and whether the PNV has activated its voter. In general there will be no surprises: the Santurtziarra Imanol Pradales will be the next president, but will he win in Santurtzi?
40 years later, Álava was a Spanish feud. What has happened since for a change of this size, the undeniable victory of EH Bidu in the last elections?
This singular fact cannot be understood from an evolutionary process through which Spanish consciousness becomes Basque... [+]
The night of 21 April left quite clear results around the winning and losing election parties. As the Ortuzar have pointed out, voters have given the PNV a new opportunity and it has been the most voted party in the CAV; in Araba and Gipuzkoa the victory has been for EH Bildu,... [+]
As viewers and interested in teaching, as we continue with the election campaign, we are led by the concerts of the Municipal Band of our city, those concerts that we go every year. Musicians would be candidates for the presidency. The same scenario, all ordered, the same... [+]
On 21 April we held the Basque elections. Prior to the arrival of the elections, several media surveys were published, many times EH Bildu was considered winner, sometimes in votes and seats, others only in seats. This was a major change for the Basque Parliament elections,... [+]
“The most Abertzale parliament of all time” vs. “Independence is at the historical lows.” These two statements have been heard in recent times and have increased following the elections held on 21 April in Araba, Bizkaia and Gipuzkoa. These two phrases, considered as... [+]
It is undeniable that election campaigns are channelling everyone, not only the society that is being asked first for the attention and then the vote, but also those who are trying to convince the voters on a daily basis.
On the last day, after knowing the results and... [+]
After the whirlwind of the election campaign, and once we have left the vote in the ballot box, we are in a position to make our reading. After all, it seems that they will govern the same as before, from the head. We therefore do not know whether we should invite this new... [+]
In the Gasteiz Parliament it is said that there is a “sovereign majority”, which is also a “left-wing majority”. On the contrary, as we all know, the government that will leave this assembly of elected officials will not be sovereign or left-wing. EH Bildu has tried to... [+]
27 + 27 = 54
Are we convinced that this is not the way to the Basque people once and for all? What is not the route of Euskaldunization of the Ertzaintza?
Are we convinced that this collaboration will not contribute to putting the whole of Euskal Herria on the path of the... [+]
