In the final straight, the general elections of India, the largest in the world, have entered. After the end of the 7th phase next Saturday, the results – all together, as those of the six rounds of voting already held are still respected until those of the last round vote – will be released on 4 June. And although they are not known, because they are suspected, only the very believers are in favour of the triumph of the opposition or, at least, of Modi not achieving the whole victory. Curiosity among external monitors will focus on the difference that the CJ Prime Minister who has exercised two mandates in the INDIA opposition in the third.
Because Modi himself has led to this electoral political judgment: Abki baar 400 paar is the motto of the campaign. On this occasion we will exceed 400. Approaching a maximum of 4/5, Lokh Sabha with 543 seats in the lower chamber. So far, the NDA alliance, led by BJP, has 342 locations. That will be the question, therefore: It has to get over 400 seats to say it's a success. If I got less than the present, it would be a failure, even if the coalition maintained the majority (because it would be more difficult to maintain the absolute majority that only has PRB today).
It is not an arithmetic mist, but a profound political problem. Such a victory, on the one hand, because it would mean something similar to the final end of the Congresual party of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, which remains at least the backbone of the opposition. That is, the CJ would have little rivals in the future of “all of India” (ubiquitous expression that is not naive), even if the constellation of local parties persists.
The reverse of this hegemony would be in the modification of the Constitution and in the special and fundamental secularity it establishes for India. It is more than clear that this quality chosen by the godfathers of independence has never been the result of BJP’s militant Hinduism. And vice versa, which has been the primary guarantee for Muslims in India (about 175 million).
That Modi, who has a well-known rivalry with Islam, would like to change that is not very recent, but the Constitution does not form such a change.
Lokh Sabhan “special majority” (three-fifths), who already has BJP, because it is not enough: Because in the upper chamber, Rajya Sabha also has to do the same. And this, at the moment, is not Modi, precisely because of the importance of local aspects.
The results of June 4 show the direction of the knot.
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