Little by little they have had time for the campaign. After hearing the results of the European elections on 9 June, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, dissolved the French Parliament, setting for the last Sunday of each month the first round of votes, which will be on 7 July. They've had a week to choose candidates, and two weeks to reach consensus on the program and reach voters at the ballot box. After the election of the most supposedly effective electoral strategy, the leftist parties have given priority to unity and formed the Popular Front; the far-right party RN Batasuna Nacional wants to achieve victory by surpassing the good results obtained in the Europeans, also achieving alliances from the first round; and in the middle, Macron is always making a more unstable and lazy government that would bring the left or the extreme right. Because at a time when the wind against your government policy is getting stronger and stronger, you know that you have the votes to win, or rather, not to lose, on the right.

According to the latest polls, the far-right RN would be the winner with 36% of the votes, followed by the Popular Left Front, which would be around 27%, and Renaissance de Macron, which would be third, with a worse result than in 2022, around 18%. Thus, the
seats in the 2022 elections to the Basque Parliament were distributed: 245 for the Macron party – with 106 fewer seats, the majority of 2017 lost – NUPES the union of the left 137, RN 89 – with an impressive leap, as in 2017 it had eight – the right 61 seats and, in addition, another fifteen from the left, nine from the right, three centrists and eighteen from other tendencies. It takes 288 seats to achieve an absolute majority and, in view of Macron’s opposition, it becomes almost impossible for him. Why had I called for elections? In the context of the left devoured by the right and the divisions, some claim that he won the far-right and made a stop to regain the absolute majority. Many denounced having "played with fire", as it runs the risk of the extreme right taking power. In addition, it had a bad calculation: the left has joined and part of the Republican right has joined RN. Basically, some tests say I thought it: Bring RN to victory to show that the extreme right can't rule and that's going to get Renaissance back in place for the 2027 presidencies.

Macron, against the "two extremes"

Repeating that the majority is essential, Macron appeals to the left and right voters who are in the opposition: "Social democrats, radicals, environmentalists, Christian Democrats, Gaullists", that is, "all those who are not in the fever of extremists". However, he has lost many of the voters he got in 2017, and both on the left and on the right, a lot of people would want to take him out of government.

Instead of speaking for him, he prefers to speak against his adversaries. It sees the Left as "the extreme left", as the front of "the extremists of France insubordinate", and it is arousing terror: It is a "shameful alliance" between those who "disagree" and those who "cannot reach an agreement", which leads to "anti-Semitism", "communitarianism", "laziness", "anti-parliamentarianism" and the economic gap. The government's position is to put the left on the same level as the extreme right: "Winning the extremist elections would be a disaster for the living French," said Prime Minister Gabriel Attal at a press conference. The mainstream media, led by miliar Vincent Bolloré, of the extreme right, have done a great job for this: They have created and nurtured the ghost of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has placed anti-Semitism and chaos more on the left than on the end derecho.Se
knows that all the statements of the campaign are measures. That is why it can be said that Macron speaks to right-wing voters: he has assimilated the famous term of the extreme right and has qualified the program of the left as "wholly immigrant." He called the left-wing proposal "absurd" for the civil status of trans people to be unlocked in the People's House, criticizing that "social project" which is not his own. Although he has aroused the grievances of some of his leftist colleagues, he has served to occupy the position in the media and reach the right.

What happens is that by beating the Popular Front and lengthening the sweet words to the RN, all it does is weaken the "joker" of the useful vote it needs to stay in power – to vote in favour or not of a fair vote to cut the way to the far right. Because these are two-way votes: those who get more than 12.5% of those registered on 30 June will have the ballot box for 7 July – they are mainly individual voters, because if they are a third party, they get an agreement in the negotiations and show support for one of the two. He is criticizing the policy of RNs, but in softer terms: "The project of the RN will not respond to your insecurity. They just say that "the situation is not going well" and they don't have a miraculous response," Macron said at the June 12 press conference. He speaks to RN voters, making self-criticism of "not having heard the anger of citizenship" and expressing what they want to hear: "Protecting the political system has never been my responsibility," said the PSE-EE Secretary-General.

What panorama will it have for the second round? What will you call RN in the battle between the Renaissance Macron party and the left? Between the Popular Front and the RN, will Macron make an appeal to cut the way to the far right, making an appeal to "wager on republican values", which is what would require for the heads between Renaissance and RN? Between Renaissance and the extreme right, which of the two will succeed? What will be the position of the Republicans? There are many questions at stake and on the eve of the first round there is nothing clear.

The People ' s Front, hope in unity

The Socialist Party, the insubordinate France, the Communist Party and the ecologist Europe Ekology Party have staged a parium to cut the step to the far right and to mount a wall in the face of Macron’s neoliberal and antisocial policy. In Ipar Euskal Herria, EH Bai is also an Abertzale coalition in the Popular Front. The leftist parties constituted the Popular Front to face the "danger of fascism" in the 1936 Basque Parliament elections. In 2024, they have prioritized bonding by the same knitting. Going beyond the discrepancies, a concrete programme has been agreed that sets out the measures for the first 100 days of governance. They propose a real change of direction, as has been said at the press conference on 14 June, because "lives will change" to "replace fear with hope and sideration with construction". In the words of economist and university student Michael Zemmour, "the change of direction" is what explains the leftist program: paralyzing anti-social reforms, increasing purchasing power, recovering wealth and thus improving the economy. With the objective of facing the criticism that it is an unbalanced program in economic terms, more than 200 economists, including Esther Duflo, 2019 Nobel Prize for Economics.

The persuasion of precarious citizens in favour of the extreme right is one of the main challenges on the left. That is why the working class is campaigning in the neighborhoods, in the most unemployed districts and in the working-class neighborhoods.
For three weeks there has been a proliferation of calls in favour of the left-wing bloc: renowned athletes, associations working for human rights and environmentalism, feminist organizations, the Attac association betting on another economic model, cultural agents, thousands and thousands of people who have left the street... But maleruski, mainstream media that reach most houses are not speakers of those readings.

Right end, according to surveys, first force

As they celebrated the victory in the European elections, Macron's statement doubled the joy to the RN's militants: They had a collective moment to represent Parliament in their hands. In the last days of the campaign, it is being repeated that the absolute majority in order to be able to govern is "indispensable" for the central government. In other words, the extreme right intends to move from 89 to 288 Members. I pass fat, but obtained according to some surveys: The survey of 21 June of the Odoxa survey house gives them between 250 and 300 Members. In any event, it is expected that more seats will be obtained. On the one hand, because the Republicans are allied with the supporters of Eric Ciotti in 62 polling stations; on the other, because Marion Marechal has left the letter of the fascist party Reconquette to support the RN; and, finally, because the discourse of the RN in the context of the economic and social crisis will enchant new voters, as in the European elections. The party has also opened a new argument this weekend: In this case, the Basque Government would have a few outside the RN and called the "leftist patriots".

The photos of the candidates from the electoral district have been presented
by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, precisely so it can be: In the place of the RN, local candidates are not known and prefer to use the letter of known faces. As far as the programme is concerned, the usual thing: drastic measures against immigration and in favour of security, and of course, such as the misuse and despair of the public, some promises that would affect purchasing power (reduction of electricity bills, reduction of value added tax, etc.). ).

Republicans: Confrontation between Macron and RN

Before the dissolution, the Republican Party had 61 Members, and it is expected that it will still lose some seats in Congress. In the constituencies where there is a second round without Republicans, those right-wing voters will have weight: Are you going to the extreme right? Will you face the extreme right by voting for Renaissance or the Popular Front? The truth is that it is increasingly difficult to imagine this second option. Will they have the abstention or the blank vote?
In any case, the party’s president has joined RN – provoking the party’s protest – and the party’s head of the list for the European elections, François-Xavier Bellamy, has also said that if there were a second round between the left and the extreme right it would do so for the extreme right. They have expressed themselves as personal votes and it is not – for the time being – the party’s vows, but it cannot be denied that it has influence.

Ignorance, until the day before the votes

All of them are aimed at abstentionists. Almost one of the two voters stayed at home in the European elections on 9 June. It is clear that one of the two can be key to victory. Just ten days before the vote, the vote for the prosecution had exceeded the one million barrier, six times more than in 2022. Therefore, participation may be higher than usual.