Complicated five-year truce
At the time when I wrote this article, it has not yet been the second round of the French presidential elections. However, the polls suggest that Emmanuel Macron should be the new president of France. In Brussels they will be happy to have saved the second point of the year. As in the case of the Netherlands, even if traps are made on their own, the offices of the European technocrats are now going to see a haunt helping them to regain their air.
Macron is an improved version of Matteo Renzi for France, although he has no party next door, as the media and the establishment have doped him well and, as a result, he will at least come to power by winning the elections. Beyond the marketing they have made to sell Macron as a new politician, it represents the most direct way to continue with politics so far, the extreme centrism: the violent neoliberalism in the economy for the benefit of the financial world and the superficial cosmetic progressism in cultural values at the service of individualism, all adorned with Europeanism.
The bipartisan system is ill, with a 5% difference between the first four candidates for the first round of elections. Thus, the elections to the National Assembly in June, which play the third round role, can be a real headache for Macron. 577 deputies are elected in the uninominal constituencies
Joy won't last long. According to the results of the first round, both on the left and on the right, Eurosceptics and opponents of the establishment obtained 48.41% of the votes. Furthermore, between François Fillon, Benoît Hamon and Jean Lassalle achieved 27.58%, the three candidates who faced the establishment and were a little critical of the actual European Union. For his part, Macron, with the support of the factual powers, has taken 24.01% of the votes out of party logic.
The left-wing and right-wing struggle in Brussels will save the match point, as a large majority on the left will not support Marine Le Pen. However, the outcome that the candidate will draw from the National Front was unthinkable when 15 years ago Jean-Marie Le Pen and Jacques Chirac disputed the Tour of Spain.
The French electorate has validated the FN to come to power. It will probably not win in the second attempt, but if the policies so far in Paris and Brussels are followed in the next five years, the FN may not fail in the third attempt, as long as it does not compete with the insubordinate France, in this case it would be more likely to win the movements of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Intractable France has been the surprise of this year, and according to the surveys of the campaign it has been the political option that has grown the most as the day progresses. They have given a lesson to progressive European parties. They have refused to conceal the identity and historical claims of the Left in the name of the discourse of political expediency. Without fear, they have regained their historical claims and stitched them with new demands with the transformative program that they have spread to the four winds. Macron will therefore have tough oppositions on both the left and the right, according to Obama.
The bipartisan system is ill, with a 5% difference between the first four candidates for the first round of elections. Thus, the elections to the National Assembly in June, which play the third round role, can be a real headache for Macron. 577 Members are elected in single-name constituencies. If in the first round no one succeeds in exceeding 50% of the votes, candidates who have achieved 12.5% of the votes will be able to take part in the second round. This means that, if the Socialist Party's relocation is confirmed, in the second round four candidates will be able to compete for different constituencies. This dispersion of votes led to the V Congress of Deputies. It could bring the National Assembly with the largest parliamentary fragmentation in the Republic. In this context, it is expected that the Government that is formed will be very weak and a weak Government will form.
Bidali zure iritzi artikuluak iritzia@argia.eus helbide elektronikora
ARGIAk ez du zertan bat etorri artikuluen edukiarekin. Idatzien gehienezko luzera 4.500 karakterekoa da (espazioak barne). Idazkera aldetik gutxieneko zuzentasun bat beharrezkoa da: batetik, ARGIAk ezin du hartu zuzenketa sakona egiteko lanik; bestetik, egitekotan edukia nahi gabe aldatzeko arriskua dago. ARGIAk azaleko zuzenketak edo moldaketak egingo dizkie artikuluei, behar izanez gero.
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