We have been coming out of the crisis for a couple of years; macroeconomic data demonstrate this, especially if we select Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a reference. An example of this is the results obtained in the Econometer published every six months by the College of Basque Economists: In almost all surveys conducted since December 2014, 40% of the economists consulted say the situation will improve, while 45-50% say it will remain the same. In the field of employment, the situation is not the same colour. However, is this crisis, known as the Great Recession, about to end?

Analyzing the data of Navarre and the Basque Autonomous Community, the reflection does not generate any joy. Let's take 2008 as a reference, when the crisis began. We have recovered the level of GDP from nine years ago. We have not reached the number of people employed, we are at 90%, payments and working hours have also remained at 90%. Data on current growth are therefore cautious.

In addition, experts say that this economic growth has a time horizon. The Strategy Director of UBS Spain, Roberto Ruiz-Scholtes, said that in 2019 Spain will return to the wrong economic situation and, by extension, our territory will also be present again. Growth in Europe is slowing down and it appears that members of the European Union are going to maintain the positive sign of growth, yet the economic consequences of Brexit and the economic dynamics of the Union’s economy may be strong enough to revive the crisis in 2019.

So why has the economic recovery taken place between 2014-2016? In the words of Daniel Albarracín, the rebound effect of the crisis has been caused by the disappearance of many companies and jobs: a smaller number of companies occupy a larger part of the market. At the same time, the price of energy, particularly oil, has been reduced and public expenditure has been stagnated, with a positive impact on the economy. Exports have also increased, as an important part of the local industry is the ancillary industry of the countries of Central Europe. When the situation in these countries improves, that of our industry bears a similar sign.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has contributed to the situation by reducing interest rates, facilitating financing, making it cheaper. Transnational corporations and their subsidiaries have benefited from this cheap money, promoting their economic activity. This is an important element that explains the strength of our exports, which has facilitated the economic financing of multinational companies.

In short, the economy has lost a decade and that explains economic growth. But at the same time, obviously, this recovery has a short duration.