The Sectoral Plan for Supramunicipal Incidence of Aroztegi lacks very useful data to assess the linguistic impact, the company has given some details about the project and some forecasts can be made, but the project does not say where the people who would come to Lekaroz can be from to cover the homes. It is not the same that Parisian and Madrid are the new inhabitants or that go people by Lea-Artibai, Cinco Villas and Urola Costa. It is not the same if you want to make a forecast about how it will affect the Baztan vasco-speaking community in the knowledge and use of the Basque Country.

In the absence of specific data, a general forecast has been made in the Linguistic Impact Assessment that the City of Baztan has developed jointly with UEMA (Commonwealth of Basque Municipalities). Supporting data are the infrastructure and services provided by the project: golf course, golf course and golf school; gardening school; four-star hotel of 135 bedrooms; haute cuisine restaurant; 228 homes.

The evaluation has taken into account the situation in which all the forecasts would be met, i.e. 228 homes would be covered, with a total of 684 people for each of them and who would live all year round in Lekaroz. From there, the project would have a negative, serious and critical impact on language. Five sections have been divided in the evaluation.

No people expected from the area

In the first section they have worked on the quality of life. Journeys to Lekaroz will multiply as residents, who are on holiday, and especially those who have gone to the golf course, will move from one side to the other. Linked to the provision of high-quality tourism, the standard of living will increase and, above all, the prices of housing will increase. The new inhabitants are not expected to be from the Baztan Valley or the adjacent counties, among other reasons because in the Baztan Valley there are 860 empty dwellings (census 2001). Therefore, it is very likely that the newcomer does not know Euskera.

The second section analyzes the impact of the project on local businesses. The typology of population and visitor would change, so the people who approach the shops, hospitality and establishments of the region would be different. They can help transform services.

Possibility of destabilising model D

Health centres and educational establishments are highlighted in the infrastructure section. If new residents were residents, would the number of enrollment increase and in what language would they be enrolled? In the municipality of Baztan, 11 out of 15 localities have educational centers, some with only one teacher, that is, with very few children. The largest educational centers are in Elizondo, the most populous village of Baztan (3,543 inhabitants), at the Ikastola and D-IIP public schools (including the Model D English Learning Program). Model D predominates in the educational centers of Baztan, in recent years there have been no requests for model A and in the classrooms of model A there are few children. The arrival of new children to Baztan could slow down the stabilization of the immersion model.

Health centers have been fighting for the service in Euskera for a long time and no great progress has been made. If the new patients were to be Castilian or parasitic, it would be more difficult to advance in respect of the rights of vasco-speakers.

Would Baztan keep breathing?

The fourth section analyzes whether the project entails a change in the Basque tradition and culture of the area, that is, in the expression and cultural agenda, in gastronomy, customs, in sport. There is no doubt that it would have a negative effect. And the last section says that the Aroztegia project would critically influence the socio-linguistic characteristics of the population. From the linguistic point of view, the characteristics of the population will change with the arrival of visitors, workers and residents.

And we go back to the initial thought. Would it be wrong to anticipate that 75.5% of Baztan’s vasco-speakers would fall and that 61.2% of vasco-speakers in use would be a miracle?