The Spanish Congress of Deputies has 350 seats and the question is who has the capacity to reach 176 seats. Bipartisanship is said to end, but it will have to be seen to what extent. According to all respondents, for the moment, the order of the winners is as follows: The pp, the PSOE, Citizens and Podemos have also voted in favour of investiture. Pp would win, but far from the absolute majority, and therefore the need for Citizens to do so. They would not have too much trouble reaching agreements, but if the situation so required, neither Citizens nor the PSOE among them.

In any scenario, it seems that Citizens will be of great importance in Spain. With the words of the party representatives we know quite well of its character, the last X-ray they have done about the Basque Country shows us its transparent interior. The General Boards of Álava unanimously acknowledged all the Alaveses and Alaveses who approached the Basque Country with a declaration approved by the PP. Citizens regressed in the public discourse in the 1980s and 1990s: “The ‘Euskaldunization’ model of Alavese society is based on imposition and political indoctrination, beyond reality, beyond the true social dimension and transcendence of the Basque Country in Álava”. If the pp and citizens will be in the Moncloa, it is not precisely Madrid’s own centralist tendency that draws the evil.

The dreams of the Jeltzales on the reform of the Gernika Statute and the pact for bilaterality are over. And the dreams of EH Bildu were over to channel the issue of peace with common sense. The streets of Spain have been bombarded in the last five years, between crisis and corruption, the image of pp underground and the hope that the PSOE and Podemos will govern. In this situation, the idea of the Second Spanish Transition has been balanced on several occasions. But everything has faded in a strange way like smoke.

There is always a loophole, for example, for Spanish parties to have the need for other parties in the treaties. Such situations have occurred before and above all have been taken advantage of by CIU and the PNV, both with the PSOE and with the pp. In the legislature that advances, 33 seats have been formed with the nationalist seats of Catalonia, Galicia and Euskal Herria. If balances are tightened, they can be decisive.

Dual competition in Navarre

In Navarra five members will be elected and two will be elected for UPN-PP, two for PSN and Podemos and, according to the surveys, the last, for the moment, for EH Bildu. It is quite possible, however, that that fifth coalition competes with Geroa Bai. In 2011, Amaiur managed to draw 7,000 more votes, but since then it has been dropping a little and Geroa Bai has taken the presidency of the Government of Navarra. What is against Koldo Martínez? That's not Uxue Barkos. And you long? That Geroa Bai's portavocado in Parliament has made him more known.

The PSN and Podemos, who were behind the Abertzales in the foral elections, are sure to be ahead of them this time. It might be curious, for example, that if PP and Citizens were to reach an agreement, UPN would have to vote in favour of Mariano Rajoy, when its partner has declared that it would annul the Economic Convention.

One of the peculiarities of Navarre is that the four forces that support the foral government will come together in the Senate. Three out of four senators will probably be elected, but it also has its risks, for example, getting fewer votes than in May. Once again, Citizens seems to be taking a big picotazo of voting to UPN-PP.

PSE-EE and pp repeat

In the CAV, 18 Members will be elected and it appears that the trend of the last elections will prevail: The PNV will come out equally or perhaps with one more Member (from 5 to 6); EH Bildu can go down (from 6 to 5); We can have a very good forecast, according to most surveys, with 4 seats; and the PSE-EE and pp will continue to go down, although these elections are the most suitable for them.

As far as Podemos is concerned, it will have to be seen how the extraordinary resignation of Roberto Uriarte affects him, especially because it occurred before the elections. Pp and PSE-EE also continue with their poor results, but it is difficult to believe that the results predicted by the surveys are poor (two for each Member). However, the good results of Podemos are also there and it seems that they will mainly affect PSOE. Citizens, on the other hand, will greatly affect PP – or UPN-PP-, although there are no seats in Hego Euskal Herria.

Another situation would have occurred if the Left candidacy called for in the CAV by several personalities of Basque society had come forward before the summer. EH Bildu, Podemos and other smaller left-wing organizations, was ultimately a call to unity, to take advantage of the impetus of the city councils of May and, above all, to enter the post-ETA stage with a truly innovative project. That will be one of the challenges of the near and middle future of Basque policy, but it is still green.

In Navarre it was not clear whether the forces of change could come together, as Geroa Bai immediately announced his willingness to go solo. However, as in the CAV, there were two proposals for confluence of left-wing forces, but we can give up the offers and, therefore, also Left-Ezkerra. The latter present the Citizen Union, but they are only behind the candidacy their acronyms.

Faced with the whole state, Catalonia will be the warmest area of the next legislature. At the end of the year it is very possible to unlock the knot of Junts Pel Sí-CUP, which will lead to the first great collision between Catalan and Spanish legality. Looking at Catalonia, more and more people think that in Euskal Herria there should also be a significant mobilization in solidarity with it. There will be an opportunity.