Looking to the future of Catalonia
The Catalan elections have been plebiscitary. All the data has made this clear. The best results obtained from the candidacies that clearly answered the question, participation has been the second highest ever recorded in Catalonia and most interpretations, among parties and among the international media, have been plebiscite.
For the first time in history, Catalonia exercises its right to decide on its political status. When a country takes that step, there is no turning back, and that is known to the State of origin, so if it is prudent, it regulates that right. Therefore, if anyone has won the elections on 27 September, that has been the Catalan people. In the domestic and international sphere, the presence of a sovereign demos has been made known in Catalonia.
Another thing is independence. Visitors have achieved very good results, but they are not enough to reach the last stop. Unilateral demands for vote based secession have been supported by a majority of at least two-thirds in Parliament or in the referendum. Therefore, 47.74% of Catalan deputies are not enough to achieve independence, but rather to move forward with the secessionist process, as the absolute majority of Members of Parliament will be independent.
For the future, the first challenge for Spain will be the next general election, which will take place in December. In Catalonia they can play the second role of the round. If unionism produces good results, it will affect the secessionist process. The same can happen with the results at national level, which will give much to talk about in Barcelona. Based on these, three scenarios can be foreseen for 2016 and 2017:
1) Madrid is breaking the unilateral dynamic after the December elections in order to adapt the process to its legality. It faces serious constitutional reform and an attractive proposal for Catalonia, proposing a new status and recognizing the right to decide for its secession in line with the Canadian law of clarity.
(2) The new independence Government will deepen the unilateral strategy as the Catalan State is being built, and will force the defenders of the third way to stand, especially if no serious proposal is forthcoming from Spain. Therefore, voters and third-way politicians will have many incentives to be linked to independence. If at some point there is a unilateral proclamation of independence in the Catalan Parliament, it is likely to be supported by a wider majority than that of the current 72 Members. From that moment on, Catalan legality marks the time when the constituent elections or the referendum on secession are held.
3) In the second scenario, before ending independence, Spain, desperate and under external pressure, could sign a confederation agreement (can take several names) with the new Catalan State and recognize its right to self-determination (probably with a cadence of a few years, that is, the commitment not to use it in three, four or X years).
In the December elections, it does not seem that Spain is going to put aside its blindness, but if the Catalans continue to do things well, the West is going to force Spain to negotiate the third scenario. If the European Union and NATO have to accept internal secession, they will prioritise doing so passionately, in a controlled and orderly manner, thus avoiding drastic changes.
Bidali zure iritzi artikuluak iritzia@argia.eus helbide elektronikora
ARGIAk ez du zertan bat etorri artikuluen edukiarekin. Idatzien gehienezko luzera 4.500 karakterekoa da (espazioak barne). Idazkera aldetik gutxieneko zuzentasun bat beharrezkoa da: batetik, ARGIAk ezin du hartu zuzenketa sakona egiteko lanik; bestetik, egitekotan edukia nahi gabe aldatzeko arriskua dago. ARGIAk azaleko zuzenketak edo moldaketak egingo dizkie artikuluei, behar izanez gero.
In 2011, the powerful 15-M movement broke out, which put the Catalan Govern in a hurry. Among other things, on that occasion the Police ran into the indignant camp of the Plaza Cataluña de Barcelona and besieged the Parlament on the day that the activists had to approve the... [+]
On the Internet comes the title of a movie that I still saw when I was growing up looking for the word Willow. In this fantasy film, the protagonist, a small man named Willow, transformed the world by liberating its inhabitants from an oppressive kingdom. Google just launched a... [+]
Irene Coulon’s talk about sleeping beauty and the image of incineration has been the main theme of this year’s Feministaldia. He has torn apart the cultural ideas of sleep, making it clear that we also have masculinized sleep. Many of the (cultural) lessons of sleep are... [+]
Araia told me to write to you. He told me that before I leave them (I will do this this year), they want to take you a text of mine, which I have never taken you, and that you deserve, that you will be proud of me. Such an opportunity cannot be missed. I don't know what I can... [+]
I have recently had the opportunity to see the latest work by Pierre Carles, a committed documentary author. Under the name of Guérilla des FARC, l'avenir a une histoire (FARC guerrilla, the future has history), proposes a renewed account of the armed conflict that has lasted... [+]
The poor management of the Valencian cold drop has led to a change in adverse meteorological alerts, as shown in the first season of "winter". Faced with the threat of rivers overflowing in Hego Euskal Herria, the indications for protection came along several paths, since no... [+]
Entrepreneurship is fashionable. The concept has gained strength and has spread far beyond economic vocabulary. Just do it: do it no more. But let us not forget: the slogan comes from the propaganda world. Is the disguise of the word being active buyers? Today's entrepreneurs are... [+]
We're in chaos. That has been said to us by the French media, which Parliament has brought down the government on 4 December. The fear that political, institutional, social, economic chaos will rage us all in the horde of hell comes to our veins. What comedy we're going to play... [+]
Surely, most of us have already bought, here and there, the gifts for Christmas. Because the night visit to Olentzero is a great quote, especially for the youngest. Everyone is preparing for this fruitful era of the year: Bilbao burns as much as Vitoria, Pamplona and Baiona,... [+]
What surprised you the most when you left jail? I've been asked many times in the last year and a half.
See that the streets of Bilbao are full of tourists and dogs with two legs, for example? Or the changes in the political situation? The first one has tired me and annoyed me... [+]
The issue of aid for Basque learning is really confusing. The citizen who wants to learn Basque must go to more than one window to know how much the course he wants to take and where, how and when he will get the grants. Because it still costs money to study, nothing is free... [+]
The understanding and interpretation of the mathematical language is what is important in the learning process, at least it is what we say to our students. The language of mathematics is universal, and in general, the margin of error for interpretation tends to be small. We... [+]