It is the third reflection I offer to Catalonia this season: three out of four articles have revolved around Catalonia. And if I look at the situation, it won't be the last.

On 9 November, the people finally had the opportunity to express their opinion with emotion, even though it was a very limited option from a legal point of view – which was not “official”. We know that the majority did not participate – 36% voted, that is, 2,306,000 inhabitants – but in this very complicated and confusing situation it is a very significant fact, as the exact result – 80% of the people who participated supported the proposal to create an independent state, around 1,850,000. These data have had two interpretations: on the one hand, that of the majority of the political and social forces of Catalonia, positive, and on the other, that of the Spanish political forces and the Catalan minority, negative, emphasizing the scarce result in favor of participation and independence. Any opinion should take into account other objective data: The 2006 Statute had 1,900,000 votes in favour, but in Spain no one has claimed its illegality.

How can we interpret all this and the opportunities that open up politically? It's not easy. Who knows what's going to happen? There are many characters, variables, interests and calculations. Let us look at some of the elements:

Artur Mas, in principle, has come out with strength and so he said that evening, when he gave the President of the Government, Mariano Rajoy, a period of two weeks to respond to his request. It's been a week since then, and I don't see movement, I don't paint. On the other hand, the negotiation it maintains with the CSP for the 2015 budgets continues, which means that Mas does not intend to follow up the consultation immediately.

ERC is also in good health, but it is not what I thought a month ago, in relation to the recovery of Mas. Furthermore, I do not think that I expected the outcome of the consultation – I would say that I had more hope, especially of participation –.

I would say that Rajoy has also been strengthened. It has not hampered the consultation “physically”, assumed “normally” the holding of the referendum and has therefore received harsh criticism from its right. Furthermore, the result, as has been said, was not the one that many people expected in Catalonia, which has described as positive. Finally, the prosecutor's office is "calm and independent" in this matter, giving the Government of Spain a "more democratic" image.

Catalan civil society will have to take the lead again and take the lead in this process. Unlike what happened at the beginning, in the last season the parties played a leading role – that was it – but that, in view of the panorama, does not guarantee that the will of the people will materialise in the coming months. Because, where are the elections that everyone has mentioned? Now, nobody seems to be interested in it. More is seeking the support of the CSP – I suppose that by the end of the legislature – and ERC wants to win the municipal elections – and, according to the latest data, CiU would retain the majority – and would not be particularly interested in dealing with the regional elections.

And, finally, where has the claim for unilateral independence remained? From what I have understood, this would be achieved through day-to-day work – if you leave it, of course. Was this necessary for that? Does the political response to the consultation coincide with its purpose?

I do not know, but what seemed a month ago today is not clear to me.