As I announced the general elections in the United Kingdom, on a cold and rainy Sunday in December, I met with half a dozen activists following the Labour campaign, who were calling at the gates of their homes. One of them just told me: “Today I am in favour of Corbyn; in 2014 I campaigned for independence, including the group, and we will do so again if the Conservative Party of Boris Johnson gets an absolute majority.” I was surprised, and when I reflected, I don't know why.

From the perspective of Euskal Herria, the issue of independence in Scotland is not an identity, it is a question of democracy. What they have voted for is that it has no weight in decisions. In short, England stands at 85% of the United Kingdom, while Scotland barely exceeds 8%. England has turned to the right for Brexit and Scotland to the left for Brexit and for staying in Europe.

The 2014 referendum was won by unionists with ten points of difference (45% yes/55% no); the survey published on August 18 reveals a clear contradiction: independence jumped ten points to unionism (55% yes/45% no, Panelbase).

And what never happened: in all the surveys that have been conducted since June, for three months, independence has already appeared before WhatScotlandThinks.org.

Brexit has been imposed on them, even though a large majority of Scots voted against (62/38%). And in recent times, COVID-19 has been even more decisive than the European issue.

79% of Scots say Nicola Sturgeon's management is good at dealing with the pandemic, compared to 23% of Boris Johnson's. And the unionists are worried that among those who voted for Brexit and unionism too, the discharge of Sturgeon is superior to Johnson and by far.

This suggests that the management of COVID-19 has given impetus to independence in recent months.

Boris Johnson is one of the major problems of unionism, and does not have a leader shaking Sturgeon in Scotland itself. The Labour Party has sunk, taken away the majority it had in decades. The Conservative Party has been the second most voted force in the last elections, driven by Ruth Davidson’s leadership in power. But the charismatic conservative politician left office, didn't join Brexit and Boris Johnson, and won't even stand in the May elections.

Therefore, all the polls and all the signs indicate that the SNP is on its way to achieving an absolute majority in the elections next May.

But ... One of the biggest, if not the biggest, SNP risks is domestic division: Alex Salmond vs.

The trial against Salmond took place last March, accused of eleven crimes of sexual assault and one of attempted rape perpetrated mostly. They had heard his lawyer say that Salmond was despicable when he was on the train, but that criminal conduct was something else.

A jury composed of eight women and five men declared their innocence. It was on March 20, when the pandemic started to panic, and the news had a modest echo.

But before the court, Salmond reiterated that the matter was a conspiracy to exclude Scotland from politics, organized from the high level of the Scottish government. Nicola Sturgeon says that's a nonsense.

Even before the criminal trial, Salmond sued the Scottish government and won. The Government itself acknowledged that the investigation of its former head was not satisfactory and that it cost him £500,000 from the pockets of the Scots. To this end, a parliamentary committee has been set up in which Salmond and Sturgeon are expected to answer the questions put to them on this subject.

Sturgeon may be harmed if there are contradictions as to when and what it was supposed to reveal. But the Chairman of the Scottish Government is a lawyer to know what and how to say.

He doesn't like all the members, he's criticized here and there for having gathered too much power in the SNP; his husband, Peter Murrell, is the CEO of the party.

Salmond has his supporters, and the toughest independentists would like his courage; Sturgeon doesn't like the fork, he's a more cautious politician.

On the subject of Brexit, pressing has been along with its Europeanist unionist strategies. It has also called for the same treatment as Northern Ireland for it to remain in the orbit of the European Union. The SNP’s argument is now that its voice is not heard and that if it reaches an absolute majority in May, it has a mandate to call for a second consultation on independence.

In order to hold the referendum, of course, Sturgeon needs the consensus of the British Government, while Johnson has already said that he is not going to accept the second sovereign consultation. David Cameron also said it and surrendered. The other is the path of federalism: The leader of the Labour Party, Keir Starmer, has chosen to give more powers to Scotland and to avoid the referendum.

And it remains to be seen how Brexit will materialise at the end of the year: whether or not the trade agreement will be concluded with the European Union, whether it will be chaos and how it will affect Scotland and the whole of the United Kingdom and, of course, the European Union. Who knows?

And, of course, we are still in the middle of the pandemic, and there are nine months left for elections in Scotland.

* Ane Roteta is a EiTB correspondent in London.