If in 2017 Macron collected 66% and Le Pen 34%, the first polls put them very close for this period: According to the IFOP survey institute, Macron would have 51% and Le Pen 49%; according to Opinonway or Ipsos, 54%, Macron and 46%, according to Le Pen and Elabe, 52% Macron and 48% Le Pen.

With 21.48% of the votes, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, from the third radical left, has placed himself by a margin of just 0.8 points with the candidate from the far right. Despite having achieved better results than in 2017 – two more points – it will not be back in the second round.

On 24 April, he called on his voters not to vote for Le Pen. As might be expected, he did not call for a clear vote in favour of Macron. Similarly, extreme left communist Fabien Roussel (2.26%) and Philippe Poutou (0.75%) have also spoken.

On the contrary, they called to vote in favour of Macron to cut the step to the far right, Anne Hidalgo (1.71%), ecologist Yannick Jadot (4.48%) and Valerie Pecresse (4.67%), from the right-wing party Les Republicains. The call to vote for Le Pen was clear, while Eric Zemmour (6.89%) and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (2.03%) have called on Le Pen to vote.

As could not be otherwise, abstention has been one of the most successful elections: one in four voters has not come to vote.

Brutal defeat of the historic right and left

Macron founded La Republique in Marche in 2017, a party that promised to break with the old way of politics, which five years later has become clear that there has been no rupture. In this vote the end of the classic left-right and right-wing parties has appeared: neither party has surpassed the 5% barrier – the 2017 defeat of the Socialist Party has been even more drastic this year going from 6.36% to 1.71%; and the right has gone from 20.10% to 4.67%.

Macron has emerged strongly, with better results than in 2017, and with both ends at par: Le Pen and Melenchon. To win, Macron will need the votes on the left. More than ever, abstention is going to have a lot of influence on the second round.