It's better not to wager too much. Of course, because the sting would be in Taiwan today. Everyone knows that. Also the least refurbished Xi Jinping groups. And your punch can make everything change.

The other, the biggest, is America. The almost continuous bustle and the feeling of crisis of the last five years can be a game in front of the spiral that could be launched from 8 November. Mid-term elections will be held in mid-term, and anything other than the president may change. Change for evil from most views. And not partisan, no.

During these two years, the Biden administration has had a majority, at least very narrow, in Congress and in the Senate (in this case, J who has broken the party’s voting discipline. Manchin and K. The sinema “thanks” to senators, although in most cases it has been found as if it had not been). And although it is regular, it has had some stability. But this can be completed.

In Congressional elections, as anger after the abolition of the abortion right slows down the bellows to Democrats and the black fog of inflation masks the sky, Republicans' triumph is almost taken for granted, and their superiors prepare/distribute the next day. The risk of Democrats losing the majority of the Senate is lower and can improve something. But the party of nowhere.

Having at least against Congress, the Bide administration, which has never been in full shape, will suddenly have huge fronts. The first is budgetary and debt. I don't know if any of Liz Truss-Kwasi Kwartang's comeria would have learned anything, but it's clear that the administration needs a lot of money, among other things to pay the interest on past debt -- when interest rates continue to grow, and that congressional subordinate to Republicans is not going to shake hands with ease. Closely linked to this, the Ukrainian bill, which is growing at a height. All with a view to the 2024 elections. When the “usual” issues persist (immigration, race, violence, rights…).

Social unrest, political instability and economic precariousness are impoverishing. Those of us sleeping in the shadow of the United States should be awake.