The coronavirus spreads very quickly. There is nothing else to see: on 2 March there were twelve cases in Euskal Herria; on 9 March, 161; yesterday it was 870, and today, at the end of the day, no more than a thousand will circulate. 23 people have died. It is already useless to identify contacts of those affected by the virus and to try to stop the spread of the virus in isolation. It's time to accept that the virus is here and will continue to spread. The containment phase is over, and it is time to take further action.

The incidence rate also demonstrates this. In Álava, 12.3 cases per 10,000 inhabitants have been detected, one of the highest incidence rates in Europe; in Navarre, 3.6; in Bizkaia, 1.4; in Gipuzkoa, 0.9. Data from Ipar Euskal Herria are not disaggregated, and it is impossible to treat them statistically.

Another sign is the growth curve. Álava is the territory with the highest number of patients, but Navarra is experiencing a similar growth, with four days of delay, and Bizkaia, with six days of delay. In Gipuzkoa, this growth curve has not begun to unfold, it could represent a nine- or ten-day regression with respect to Álava. This means that if the confinement and reduction of social relations did not work, these three countries will reach the number of sick people in Álava a week or ten days later. The incidence rates will be lower, however, as they have more inhabitants than Álava.

And all of that means that this is just the beginning; that the curve of those who have caught the disease is going to continue to grow in the next few days. Even if containment has been initiated. Therefore, data coming in the first days of confinement, perhaps in ten or fifteen days, will not be good. These days are the cases of contagion and incubation of the weeks prior to the implementation of the confinement, which is incubated for two weeks. For the time being, the curve will continue to rise.

The first results of the confinement will begin to be seen at the end of these fifteen days. But 29 March will not be the end. Epidemiologists have said that if the confinement is interrupted within two weeks, it will be like going back to the beginning. Reference: China has been almost two months, and with stricter measures than here. It will serve as a reference: In Italy, they started a week earlier than in Euskal Herria.

It is not time to be disappointed by the bad data that may come in the coming days. This is the beginning of a long campaign. It's time to take strength and learn how to interpret data. Mutual care and self-care. Animate and animate us. Without forgetting that Euskal Herria is in a situation of emergency, to monitor the cuts in the freedoms that can be made by the public authorities and to adopt measures for those who suffer situations of exclusion or social violence.

If this lockdown succeeds, it will do so on the responsibility of administrations, business owners and citizens. It is not time to look at the navel: neither the political navel, nor the economic navel, nor the individual navel.