- As coronavirus statistics are refined, it will be seen in April 2020 that this scourge has caused far more victims than was originally indicated in official statistics. France has had to change the accounts, Spain acknowledges that it cannot link the real figures, Catalonia did the same on Thursday, the Government of Navarra brought to light several deaths... This is something that is happening in most countries, as explained by James Tozer, who produces statistics for The Economist magazine.
"From today will research The Economist.ek on the overmortality caused by COVID-19 in many countries. We've already published the interactive maps of the six countries that have shown their data." This is what James Tozer, who is working on statistics for The Economist magazine and who is the head of the company Prospect Sporting Insights, has advanced. Here are the ideas that he summarized in 14 tweets.
In most countries, official figures of COVID-19 deaths can be indicative enough to know if the curves are "laying down".
However, the Ministries of Health in the countries estimate in part below the actual numbers of deaths of people who have died from the virus. Among other things, because deciding the causes of the deaths can ask for a period of several days. In fact, only most official deaths accumulate from people who have tested positive or who have died in hospitals. As has been shown in Italy, the virus has also killed many more people. The Italian Institute of Statistics, with an analysis of 6.7 million inhabitants of 10 million inhabitants of Lombardy, in the four weeks that separate on 28 March the mortality rate increased to 9,000, but only 4,000 cases officially attributed to COVID-19.
In Spain, data from the Instituto Carlos III collected an excess of 13,000 deaths in March, while official coronavirus data collected 8,000. Like Italain, in Spain daily totals have also been based on data provided by hospitals, outside of them or without testing, leaving the deceased apart.
In France, until 3 April the excess of deaths was 8,000 people, but the official figure was 5,000. Since 1 April, the French authorities have also begun to count residential cases, which has considerably increased the figures. In the same period, the United Kingdom emitted an additional 7,000 deaths and the authorities have come to explain 6,300 even though the authorities have changed the way they count. In the Netherlands too, the gap has been very large: With 4,000 excess deaths until 5 April, 1,700 were officially charged to the coronavirus and 12 days later, the 3,100 figure that the Netherlands has officially reported still seems very low compared to the real ones.
In the United States, most states update their data very slowly. And in addition, in them too, the gap seems very large. Specifically, in the case of New York City, despite the fact that the week before March 28 had 1,400 coronavirus deaths, official figures amounted to 1,100. The gap has also been due to the increase in the crisis, which in the four weeks leading up to 11 April had suffered 7,000 mass deaths. Aware that the statistics are not complete, the New York authorities have since begun to count deaths with coronavirus symptoms despite the test.
He ends his analysis: "Most of these data are from a few days ago and, unfortunately, the increase in excess deaths will be much higher in the coming weeks."
In Euskal Herria, it will also be the citizens who will appreciate this kind of analysis and clear summaries that can help to better understand the real size of the tragedy that we live.