It should not be easy to understand that the Israeli and US plan for Gaza is about:

1- Biden becomes “hard” before Netanyahu, asks him not to “invade” Rafah and presses him to let more “humanitarian aid” enter Gaza.

2- But the White House is already working to turn its messages around. He insists that Israel has offered Hamas a “very generous agreement,” which, as Washington suggests, would be like a ceasefire. But it's not. According to some reports, the best thing Israel has offered is an unlimited “permanent calm”. And that promise is not reliable either.

3- If Sixteen accepts the “treatment” and the return of some hostages, the bombings will be reduced for a while, but hunger will intensify because Israel wants a “total victory” against Hamas. Something impossible. Only that will delay – days or weeks – the passing of Israel to the fifth step.

4- If Sixteen refuses the “agreement” they present it as an intrantsigent part and attribute their will to continue the “war”. (Note: this has never been a war. Only the West argues that it may be at war in a territory that it is occupying for decades, or that Sixteen “initiated war” with the attack of October 7, when Israel has been blocking the enclave for seventeen years, causing despair and malnutrition).

Last week, U.S. Secretary Anthony Blinken advanced this script by saying that Hamas was “the only thing there is among the citizens of Gaza and the truce… They have to make a decision and also quickly.”

5- EE.UU. announce that Israel is ready to implement a humanitarian plan that meets the conditions imposed by Bidene to attack Rafah.

6- This will give the excuse to EE.UU, to Europe and to the countries of the region to stay aside, while Israel begins a long-dreamed attack. Biden has previously pointed out that this attack would be “a red line”, as it will massively affect civilian victims. All this is forgotten.

7- Middle East Eye has published that Israel is building a checkpoint ring in the Rafah area. Netanyahu suggests lying that they will meet the requirements of international humanitarian law. They will let women and children leave, if they manage to reach one of those checkpoints before a bombing in Israel dies on the way.

8- All the men of Rafah and all the women and children remaining in it will be treated as armed fighters. If they are not bombing or killing household waste, they will be executed or taken to the Israeli torture chambers. No one will mention that the Sixteen fighters who were in Rafahn were able to go out in tunnels.

9- Rafah will be destroyed, leaving the entire list of Gaza deteriorated, and the famine caused by Israel will worsen. The West is leading, will say that what has happened in Gaza has been caused by Sixteen, will indicate the seriousness of what needs to be done and will put pressure on other third countries, especially the Arabs, to make a “humanitarian plan” to relocate survivors outside Gaza.

10- The Western media will continue to describe in Gaza the Israeli genocide in purely humanitarian terms, as if the “disaster” had been a divine action.

11- Under pressure from EE.UU, the International Court of Justice, or the World Court, will not rush to give a final ruling if South Africa’s accusation of genocide is proven to Israel. The genocide that has already considered “possible”.

12- That the World Court decides what it decides, and it is almost impossible to imagine that it does not say that Israel did genocide, it will be too late. The Western political and media class will go down the page, letting historians decide what all this has meant.

13- Meanwhile, the background generated in Gaza is already being used by Israel as a model for the West Bank. Above all, the erosion of the international principles of law imposed for a long time. Claiming that Hamas was not totally defeated in Gaza and that other parts of Palestine are being used as a basis, Israel has been progressively increasing pressure on the West Bank with another blockade. Clean and repeat the dirt produced so far.

This is the most likely plan and our job is to do everything we can to ensure that it does not become a reality.

Published in Jonathancook.substack.