argia.eus
INPRIMATU
ANALYSIS
Hanlon principle in the Spratly Islands
  • Perhaps you have to judge Hanlon’s principle: “Never attribute to evil what silly can perfectly explain.” The main protagonists repress this opportunity.
Mikel Aramendi 2024ko maiatzaren 14a

The truth is that it is now 25 years since the “BRP Sierra Madre knot” began to be hooked.

In this time of 1999, the top Filipino leaders, President Joseph Army Estrada (the character is quite faithful to his name), and his defense minister, “Orly”, decided to abandon the old warship “Sierra Madre”, instead of dismantling it, the Second Thomas Shoal / Fastgin / Renai Jawao, which is sunk in the middle of the island. The Chinese government of Jiang Zemin protested enthusiastically because it considered that all the sea that is called among us the island of Spratly was a sea under its command. So now.

In the previous five years, the context was that set by the switchboard on around the rock tip Mischief Reef / Panganiban / Meiji Jiao, 22 miles away. With different fears and regimes, always under the premise of its independence, China embarked on the construction of durable, somewhat steep structures. The Philippines rejected the move. Leaving the old “Sierra Madre” in the background and keeping a group of soldiers fixed in it also seemed a wise move.

The judgment of the years is very different. On the one hand, “Sierra Madre”, a former 50 year old ship in 1999, is today a residue. Imagine the lives of the Filipino soldiers who have to be there. That is why, among other things, the current administration of Marcos has undertaken in it a desire to build something new and more livable. In his day, apparently, breaking the agreement between Duterte and Xi Jinping. And every time you've wanted to take supplies from the Chinese coastguards' water cannons.

In Bizkitarte, Mischief, the rock tip of the fourth century, has become a rather large island to become a complete air and sea base. This is undoubtedly one of the strengths of the gigantic defensive system that China built on the island of Spratly in the year 2014-2015 through the “spin-off”. The environment is controlled firsthand.

It was not very prudent to bring the ruin of “Sierra Madre” there.

If it was not a real intention and it is not that, as it is happening, it was a voltage generator. But in this case we should start to reject the Hanlon principle.