All these meetings should serve this Saturday to warm up the summit of pro-Ukrainian countries at the Ramstein military base in Germany, which the United States maintains. The meeting, convened by Joe Biden, had a great expectation, but it was suspended by the presence of Hurricane Milton (US).

In theory, all these countries give their full support to Ukraine until Russia withdraws, but in practice that approach is gradually changing and the Western countries would be preparing a plan to negotiate with Russia. There are many signs that suggest it.

On the road to negotiation

Among the most important signs is the fact that all the indicators indicate that Russia is gaining the war, slowly but steadily, undeferred. The most important example is the eastern front, especially Donetsk. In early October, the Russian Army took the city of Vuhledar after more than 30 months of fighting. The city is an important link between southern and eastern Ukraine and was an important supply centre for the Ukrainian army. At the same time, Russia has done itself with other small villages on that front, where it has won US troops. This is the next big objective, and it is believed that Russia can achieve that goal before winter comes. With the intention of reversing the situation, in August Ukraine conquered the Kurse area in southern Russia, surprising the Kremlin, but Russia has turned the situation upside down and resisted the attack.

The two countries are suffering a great deal from war, but Ukraine is suffering a great deal more. Russia repeatedly hits the country’s major energy hotbeds and this has a huge impact on Ukraine’s day-to-day life, especially in the winter. Furthermore, Ukraine, at the demographic level, also has serious problems in equipping its army and giving rest to the soldiers on the front lines.

Kiev is afraid that US aid will also be reduced in the future. On the one hand, if Donald Trump wins the November elections, he has already announced that he will reduce overseas aid to the polls. On the other hand, as the war situation in the Middle East gets tougher, the United States is also looking there, and probably more so than Ukraine, among other things because when it attacks Iran, Israel will have to be supported.

The truth is that, even if the idea of negotiation continues its course, the West must strongly support Ukraine for its leaders to come to the negotiating table as forcefully as possible. The new NATO Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, has made this clear: "Why is it so important to do more to strengthen Ukraine?" Because it is the only way to an agreement reached by negotiation, and because that is how we will put Putin, who will not be able to win on the battlefield, in the lead.”

This same week, the Financial Times, in its editorial, has written on the subject and has pointed out that more and more is being said about a negotiated solution that “would leave almost all of Ukraine.” However, the editorialist believes that Ukraine “does not receive the necessary support to achieve this small-scale goal.” The official position of Kiev is that it will not surrender until Russia is expelled from Ukraine, but in that editorial it says that “it is looking inwards to talk about the agreement that Moscow would reach a fifth of Ukraine.”

The danger of nuclear war

The geopolitical blog Moon Of Alabama is more detailed and, according to him, it is known that Ukraine is losing war today. Therefore, the basis of the Western plan, according to the authors of the blog, would be: “Give Russia a part of the territory and offer split Ukraine a level of NATO assistance”.

However, he warns that the plan has many enemies. On the one hand, several NATO countries, according to him, should defend it directly in a new war between Russia and Ukraine, which would mean directly entering into war with Russia. In this scenario, the risk of nuclear weapons would multiply enormously. Furthermore, extreme right-wing sectors such as Ukraine are also against such an agreement. And Russia should also accept that NATO forces are at its borders, when that was one of the reasons for this war, that Ukraine does not target itself in NATO.

In this context, it is also interesting to see how Russian analysts see the situation. Dmitri Trenin, known political scientist of the country, is one of them. Journalist Rafael Poch has posted an extensive interview with him on his blog. Trenin is clear that Russia is winning the war, but he is very concerned about the attitude of NATO, which considers that this institution is being increasingly pressured by Russia. He says that if we go down that road, the risk of war with NATO is high, and that then Russia will have to think very well about the use of its nuclear weapon. But it's pessimistic. “I increasingly believe that a limited nuclear war in Europe is acceptable to the United States, provided it does not directly affect the United States.”