Hopefully it's not just a matter of mathematics the second lap that's going to take place on Sunday. If this is the case, we have a worrying and disappointing question: Will the far-right RN achieve an absolute majority or majority in the French Parliament?

Before joining the dance of cold data, it must be made clear that if the "Republican front" is formed, the path to the RN can be cut. Until now, this vote has always favored the right: to cut the road to the far right, to give the vote to the couple and thus won in 2002 the right-wing right-wing Jacques Chirac, who won 82.21% of the votes in the second round, against Jean-Marie Le Pen, and twice Emmanuel Macron, with 66.10% in the second round of 2017 and 58.55%. Will it be the right-wing and centrists who will show at this stage the determination that the left has shown them over and over again? If the situation so requires, albeit reluctantly, will the New Popular Front FHB vote to cut the road to RN? These factors will influence the new composition of Parliament, which will be announced this Sunday. Following the map of the middle L´Humanité, the New Popular Front will be in the 275 constituencies in the second round. In fact, the option is there and there's a way to remove the RN from the front line.

But, unfortunately, it is quite certain that the move from the right to the left will not be so general. To begin with, because the right has not given the slogan of vote – on the contrary, the left has been to present itself as a monster and the most prestigious representatives have announced that they will vote for RN. On the other hand, because the message from the Macron environment is not clear either: Although it has been said "not a single vote for RN", the slogan "the vote for the New Popular Front FHB" that was really needed to provoke has not been published. On the contrary, they constantly warn of their disagreement with the left.

For example, in the statement released by the Renaissance party of Macron for the second round you can read the following: "We do not share the ideas of the FHB, but we have decided to cut the way to the far right to defend the values of the Republic," he added. The message is too small, even more so after the campaign of the first round spread the left led by the Macronists. How will the elector vote for the devil to cut the way to RN? After comparing the politics of the left to chaos, the precept of cutting the step to the NB arrives too late. The "republican values" should be strong and rooted in an environment in which centrists and centre-right opt for large-scale HBV. It is obvious. It would be a surprise and a great surprise for the second round.

In fact, if you trust the data, the extreme right is strong and you expect it to win. Let us look at the 577 constituencies of the French State:

To hinder the NB, at the end, much less triangular

Firstly, RN has obtained 39 Members from the first round, with 50% of the votes and more than 25% of those registered – 32 from the New Popular Front, two from the Macronists and three from the right. As for the 501 constituencies to be known in the second round, the far right is strong: it is the first force in 258 areas – 97 in the Manomanist, 158 in the Triangular (among the three candidates) and 4 in the three constituencies.

The high participation in the first round - 66.7%, the highest of the last 25 years - has led to a greater number of triangular and flat competitions: 306 triangle and five square. Imagine that in 2022 it was only eight.

Observing that in almost 85% of them the RN has the highest number of votes, the left FHB ordered them to withdraw their candidates in third place and the Ensemble party in favor of Macron. It is precisely because we know that triangular forces tend to favor the first force. There have been 224 withdrawals, and the precept has almost been fully complied with by those on the left – 132 have been withdrawn and five have been retained – while for the macro-federalists it has not been so categorical – 81 have been withdrawn and sixteen have been retained. Thus, the triples will be between the far-right NB, the left HBV and the other, but much less: It's 89 triangular, two quartets and 409 for each.

It is a good strategy to cut the way to the extreme right, and in the end, the representatives of RNs have criticized harshly, always breaking the ghost of the extreme left: Jordan Bardella has defined the withdrawal as "the alliance of dishonor" between Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the representative of the Understated France, as "the greatest contempt for voters", while Le Pen has warned that the withdrawal is.

Following this important step, it remains to be seen whether all those voters are going to support the HBV. If you trust the polls, no. No wonder I follow the elements mentioned at the beginning of this news item. The day after the first lap, experts and survey agencies thought that the absolute majority was affordable to the far right. In the absence of four days for the second round and in a much smaller number of triangular, more than the absolute majority – 289 Members – the majority is dedicated to RNs.

For example, the Harris Interactive and Toluna survey channels between 190 and 220 members of the RN, between 159 and 183 members of the left FHB and Macron supporters between 110 and 135. The issue is getting narrowed. The key to cutting the step to the extreme right is saved when the call is opened or you bet on the New Popular Front. They're a total of 577 polling stations, each with its own reality -- you can't generalize.

As for Ipar Euskal Herria, for example, the fact that in recent days the PNV candidates personally vote in favour of the FHB or that the President of the Commonwealth of Iparralde and Baiona, Jean-René Etxegarai, has determined that the RN will vote in favour of the FHB are important steps to help cut off. This kind of dynamic in other French constituencies can still change things in the last four days. Hopefully, it will serve to counteract the expected NB triumph.