Both because of the measures provoked by COVID-19 and by the war in Ukraine, the atmosphere of the campaign has been warm and for another five years the time to vote for the French president has not calmed the talks and the streets. But the time has come for us and Sunday will be the first round of that vote. The second round will be held on 24 April among the two most voted candidates.

A total of 12 applications are submitted: Emmanuel Macron (LREM) – current president; Marine Le Pen (RN) and Eric Zemmour (REC); Valérie Pecresse (LR); Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DLF); Haleot Lasle (LP); Right Centre

If we rely on the polls, and being aware that they influence the discussions and elections to which it is put to the vote, it is important to look at this data. Emmanuel Macron receives 26% of the vote, followed by Marine Le Pen, 22%, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 17%, which ranks second. Given that the Socialist Party, with Anne Hidalgo as a candidate, has weakened in recent years and that the Republican Party does not go as fast as the classic on the right, it can be predicted that the struggle will be between the current president and the extreme right or the extreme left.

It remains to be seen, however, how the votes in favour of Marine Le Pen are influenced by the far-right candidate, Eric Zemmour. He will no doubt take the votes off him. But the question is, "How much?" ": Will you fail the jump to the second lap or not? Their appearance will take place on Sunday night.

Of course, participation will also have a lot of influence. In the first round five years ago, the abstention in the French State as a whole was 22.23 per cent.

"Effective vote" from the first round

Until now, there has been talk mainly of an "effective vote" for the second round: voting in its favour, even if it does not like what is voted, to cut the way to its equivalent. A classic in those elections where Le Pen's extreme right moves to the second round.

What's true is that this year people are doing those calculations from the first lap. Despite the plurality of the candidates from the left, many have Jean-Luc Mélenchon since the first round of the votes – although they would opt for one more – because it is the "only option" to put the left on the second round.

The same, for the far right: for Eric Zemmour it seems that many of those who want to vote are going to channel the vote to Marine Le Pen, because the far right can move on to the second round.

This tendency to vote is not seen with good eyes by other candidates and calls them to follow political opinion herritarrei.Gainera, they have little space in the media, as they are seen and classified as "small parties".