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INPRIMATU
Analysis
And the state lockdown?
  • It's lazy, yes. Four years ago the elections were repeated because professional politicians were not able to agree how to make the way to the throne, and the main owner of the media and the people was then the sloth. Once again, the citizens who came from other elections and, listen, call to vote and denigrate such an unpleasant campaign before August is not an effort often. That is what those on one side will think, they will be more or less, and those who like the controversial series such as Borg, the other side, will follow very frightly the negotiations and exchanges of opinion next week.
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Accounts and dirty. There will also be two sides on the table in the coming days and weeks: Formed by the PP and the Vox, supported by two seats from the regionalist parties of Navarra and the Canary Islands, and the government baptized as Franskestein, supervised by the PSOE and sponsored by its leftist parties. Summary can be expected to offer the PSOE a coalition government, but this will not be enough, let alone. Account must be taken: It will have to get the support of the PNV, which should not be that difficult, and of the BNG as well. But also, Pedro Sánchez will have to talk to EH Bildu and ERC to put his vows at his service, although they abstained in the previous investiture session. These negotiations will have to be closely monitored, because the demands of the independence parties can be strengthened and hindered by negotiation, or Sanchez can be supported with minor demands, if adequate alternatives are not found.

Once that tranche of the two independence parties has passed, before he begins to throw the pacifier, an essential warning: the numbers of the new “progressive” government would not give, at least, for the government to be formed in the majority. Four seats are available. Inevitably, Sánchez, in the supposed investiture session, in addition to the aforementioned agreements and sponsorships, should abstain Junts. If I voted against, as was the case throughout the last legislature, Spanish parliamentarianism would be blocked.

One of the first late reactions of the parties was Junts talking. The key words, in the middle of the prenegotiation phase: “We are not going to give government stability for zero.”

What will the king do? This is one of the major concerns consulted by the Spanish media. As in the past, the king invites a presidential candidate to his house, drinks coffee and proposes that he study the possibility of forming a government and obeys the mandate of negotiating with the parties. It is not easy to find at the Wimbledom finals and the king of the Kingdom of Spain was defined by the British media as friendly and attractive. Who will he call? Will you make a single call? Will it not offer the party that has been the first force?

To Europe. We have talked about Wimbledom, but not exactly about the United Kingdom, because it came out of the European Union, but it would be appropriate to take account of the European concept to analyse the Spanish election results. In just over a year, in Europe in general, traditionalist parties have regained strength and formed governments with even more right-wing parties, either through one-off agreements in parliament (such as Sweden), either through the coalition government formula (Italy, Finland) or through the easy victory of the traditional right (Greece). The political analysts have highlighted the trend of the last year and a half, somewhat generalised, and it is possible that the Brussels authorities were looking at Madrid on Sunday night, worried about what might happen, among other things, albeit symbolically, because in the second half of this year Spain has a responsibility to assume the presidency of the Council of Europe.

The question is whether it can be a sign of something: Do the results give Europe a little respite? The European elections will be held within a year.

Surveys. Issues that should be reviewed. In Western countries there is no endless survey as in the Spanish state. The surveying companies even publish two, three and four weeks in the same week, where some disparity has been observed. A week before the election, some dared to say that the absolute majority of PP could be “close”, and if this did not happen, with the hand of Vox they could reach 176. And otherwise, well, stay very short. This is called oral warming.

Finally, the house that has approached the most has been the house that is usually located at the destination. Often, CIS publishes surveys that only a person living outside the world can do, which is impressive, although the final outcome of the elections has been quite favourable. The reliability of Mr. Tejanos, who has charged fourteen million euros of public money, is that in municipal and foreign elections he did not at all notice the rise of the PP, and even expected a great triumph of the PSOE, and has also been seen in the elections to Cortes: CIS was the only house surveyed to win the PSOE. And no, he hasn't won. Although it is closer to the voting rate, in general it seems that it is going in a different direction, contrary to the current, but another is the current to follow.

Fear of the wolf. Voters have been mobilized by the "fear of the wolf" in the emergency maneuver of the PSOE. It seemed that the balance was in favor of PP, but in two months there have not been as many remains as to master sanchism.

But the wolf is not the same everywhere. The wolf of CKD, for example, is the PSC and is curious. It has helped the Government of Spain and the PSOE to implement various laws, although they have also been critical, such as the labor reform law. In Madrid, but in Barcelona, the Generalitat governed by the ERC is increasingly minority. And now, look, the Catalans have punished ERC, among others, for supporting the PSOE and exerting low pressure, in exchange for rewarding the Catalan socialists.

The wolf has eleven other names. In the case of PNV, perhaps EH Bildu. You have to know how to move.