- This is the re-election of the Spanish Congress and Senate, the fourth since 2015. And the first question the PSOE has to ask is why she repeated the elections in the April call that she was the winner. In fact, the elections on 10 November have put on the table a complicated playing field.
On a general note, the Socialist Party has won the elections, yes, but since April it has lost some 800,000 votes and three seats. The People’s Party, with 22 seats and over 700,000 votes, has highlighted the role of the leader of the opposition, but without being a hegemonic right-wing party. The third party, the ultra-right party Vox, was the clear winner of the vote, in which Citizens voted. After crossing the barrier of three and a half million, Citizens has crushed, and the PP has approached (Andalusia, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalonia…) or imposed (symbolic victory of the Community of Murcia). It should be remembered, however, that the far-right is not new to the Congress of Deputies. Unlike many other European populist right-wing movements, Vox comes largely from a division of a governing party, the Dusty Party, which has been part of the system.
In the blocks of the left and the right, therefore, there has been no revolution, but the hardening of the Spanish nationalism of that second block. The PSOE also joins the fight against the Catalan interior enemy during the election campaign
To continue the general reading, the United Nations space has also lost its votes: About 600,000 and 7 seats. It has suffered a significant loss and its strategy to be part of the government crashes: it will see what relationship it will have with independentisms at the new congress in which national conflicts will be centralized. In fact, the chances of democratisation of the State are taking a long time away from Madrid. In this political space, the failure of Operation More Country has been total (about 550,000 votes, below 2.5%). In the case of Citizens, it has been a clear loser in this year’s general election. Behind the United Nations Podemos, it has lost 40% of the votes and, above all, it has lost the central position of April, in the election process of the president. In the struggle for Spanish nationalism, Vox imposes itself and forgets its supposed status as a liberal center.
In the blocks of the left and the right, therefore, there has been no revolution, but the hardening of the Spanish nationalism of that second block. In addition, in the struggle against the internal Catalan enemy, the PSOE has joined during the election campaign, in which the Socialist Party sought to attract sectors that had gone to the right-wing bloc, showing strong opposition to independence. It is clear that it has not succeeded and that, in return, it has managed to govern and, above all, has made governance difficult for the coming years.
These elections from the Basque Country are particularly relevant to events in other stateless nations. In Catalonia, in the context of the ruling and the response to Procés, independence has grown again. ERC has once again won the Spanish elections, until recently, in which it dominated the PSC, although it lost nearly 150,000 votes. Junts per Catalunya has gone up in votes and it has been done with a seat, evidencing the strength of the political sector organized around Puigdemont. And the Cup, which is presented for the first time to a Spanish election (although in the April call a part was also presented with the name of Front Republicà), gets two seats. Independence in the Principality has earned a total of 42.5 per cent of the vote, which maintains the upward trend of recent times. But, over and above other interested readings, those who have clearly positioned themselves against independence (PSC, pp, Vox and C`s) have not reached 40%. The conflict will remain open and the position of the En Comú space will be decisive.
These elections from the Basque Country are particularly relevant to events in other stateless nations. In Catalonia, in the context of the ruling and the answer to the 'procés', independence is once again growing
There has been a novelty in the situation in Galicia. The BNG has returned to the Congress of Deputies and the pp has been made with the victory, closing the post to Vox. In recent times, Galician nationalism was experiencing a profound crisis, since a significant part of the BNG (at the hand of the charismatic leader Xosé Manuel Beirás) joined the political space of Podemos. For the first time in a long time, the Congress will also hear the voice of Galician sovereigns, together with Catalonia and Euskal Herria del Sur. It will have to be seen what role the Basque Basque Basque forces will play from now on. The 7 seats in the PNV can be essential or less central, according to the decisions taken by the Socialist Party. The sovereign forces of the Llotja de Mar declaration, including EH Bildu, have won 29 seats and can form a significant force, but the differences between them are also remarkable.
Repetition, therefore, has resulted in a complicated situation. Spanish nationalism has been strengthened in its toughest forms, while the sovereign and independence forces have risen. Politics is also done outside the institutions, and mobilizations in Catalonia will be particularly important, as they are not free of charge. It remains to be seen how the Socialist Party is going to move forward in this situation.
Iker Iraola Arretxe
Professor at the UPV/EHU. Research Group Part Hartuz.