On 24 February 2022, Russian troops invaded Ukraine. When the Russian bombs began to fall, a new era opened. The new war in the heart of Europe surprised us, but it should not surprise us so much.

Much has been said about the geopolitical and geostrategic motivations behind the invasion of Russia, about the reasons that have led Vladimir Putin to such a bold attack. He has generally tried to understand more than to justify the reason for that cruelty. The annexation of the rich and Russian donbas, the control of the Black Sea, the intention to implement a docile government in Kiev or to curb the small expansion of NATO. These reasons have undoubtedly weighed heavily on the relentless hand of the Kremlin, which has remained at home. But there is one factor that has hardly been heeded in this whole debate: energy.

Yes, there has been talk of Europe’s enormous energy dependence on Russia, of the impact that the reduction in the flow of gas to the Old Continent or the new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that would directly link Russia with Germany via the Baltic Sea. But all these debates explain to us the consequences of the war. They do not tell us about the energy causes of this war. Not for immediate reasons, but deeper, more radical and underground.

Russia is one of the few countries where there is clear talk of peakoil or zenith in oil production. At the time of Peakoil, oil production reaches the peak of technology, economy and physics, and inevitably begins to fall, despite the fact that as many investments, technologies and innovations are made as necessary to avoid it. In line with previous statements, in 2021, the Russian Energy Minister acknowledged that the extraction of Russian oil will never reach pre-pandemic levels, a gesture of honesty that we will rarely find in any Western public instance. In the same direction, it is known that natural gas production in Russia has been virtually paralysed for more than two decades and that in recent years it has experienced a transitory upturn due to the online entry of the last areas of Eastern Siberia. And you can't go east anymore.

It is the Age of Borders, and in Russia, more than in other countries, they own it and they accept it publicly. In the Kremlin cabinets they know that the present prosperity of mineral resources is temporary, energy being the head of these resources. And that is probably why it is in Russia’s interest to put itself as best as possible in the future. Controlling access to the Black Sea, neutralizing the threats of the future, controlling global cereal production... All these objectives coincide with a possible Russian strategy to deal with the peaks in the extraction of the raw materials that await us.

They also play their cards across the Atlantic. Now that they begin to recognize that the prosperity of Fracking gas is only days short, the United States is also interested in harnessing that prosperity for as long as it lasts. The only terrestrial market for fossil gas in the United States is that of Mexico, but it is not sufficient for its current production capacity, so, in order to be able to transport it on board, in recent years, the United States. United States has exponentially increased its capacity for liquefied gas and is currently, with more than 50 billion cubic meters, the producer of the world's first liquefied gas. But, of course, liquefied gas is much more expensive, and you could only buy it in Europe. That is the real reason why the United States was opposed a few years ago to Nord Stream 2 ending the gas pipeline and has placed all kinds of obstacles to the agreement between Russians and Germans: With cheaper Russian gas, there would be almost no market for US liquefied gas.

But how did the American giant justify the value of getting into trade problems between two other countries? The excuse so far was to prevent Germany (and thus Europe) from suffering excessive energy dependence on Russia, although it was difficult to argue, as Europe imports large quantities of coal, oil and enriched uranium from Russia. Now the war has made it much easier. And that is why Germany, reluctantly, has had to accept that Nord Stream 2 will no longer be opened, and has announced large investments in regasification plants so that it can receive the liquefied gas from the American friend … in the few years remaining, before the decline begins.

There may be another worse motivation for the United States to be interested in a war in Ukraine. In the Age of Energy Reduction, it won't be for everyone. Not like before. And if sanctions are imposed on Russia for the great economic interdependence between Europe and Russia, Europe will also suffer its consequences, much more than the Americans.

Without Russian gas, Europe would collapse within a week. In the absence of suppliers capable of supplying the enormous amount of gas sent to us by the Russians, the promise to reduce the gas imports of the Euro-Asian giant can only be achieved with a real economic collapse of the continent, an economic contraction as has never been seen. This collapse of their social metabolism would inevitably be messy and chaotic. That is why European sanctions are timid. Similarly, Europe cannot suddenly break its links with Russian coal, nor with enriched uranium, and could not find a substitute for its oil. Russia would sink economically with all these sanctions, it is true, but Europe would also be sunk. Someone from the United States has calculated this situation which may be better than another scenario where Russia and the EU would understand each other, as this alliance would be very dangerous for the Americans, as they would be very isolated.

What might not have been foreseen in these calculations were the derived actions: Aware of the discomplexity of the Empire and apparently the pendulum is already heading east, Saudi Arabia is thinking of the Chinese who will sell their oil in yuan. Also India. The use of the dollar as an international reserve currency is in jeopardy, which has accelerated the decline of the American Empire, especially since its withdrawal in Afghanistan. The United States is not dependent on Russia’s energy products (which is why it can calmly promote the ban on Russian imports), but it is dependent on Russia’s iron, nickel or enriched uranium. And in Russia, which are not idiots, they have reacted with bans. It probably wasn't planned.

The birth of a truly multipolar world brings us to the first noises of deglobalisation, inevitable in the medium term. But, at the same time, "saving what you can" (or "what you have power") has the melody of the beginning of a phase, which can be a disaster if hatred and revenge make them worse, which can hinder the collaboration needed to pilot shared urgent climate challenges.

We knew that the Era of Energy Loss wouldn't be an easy road. The sharp reduction in non-renewable energy sources (oil, coal, natural gas and uranium) that provide us with nearly 90% of the basic energy consumed in the world did not bode well. We were talking about recession, about unemployment, about rebellion as well. But it's becoming increasingly clear that there will be more wars. Wars to get vital resources and help wars, but one more to accompany them to the abyss.

Among the most lethal and effective kicks of these wars is the shortage of food. Both fossilization (before the conflict) and the industrialisation of agriculture led us to the door of a serious global food crisis: this crisis has now been aggravated by Russia’s conflict, sanctions and control over the European barn (Ukraine).

The shortage of cereals announces serious problems in Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria... Key countries for Europe. In 2011, the Arab Spring became known, due to the lack of food. If you add to this the difficulty of access to drinking water, you will see the conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia due to the Renaissance Dam. Notice the drought that is affecting large areas of South America, North America, Europe or Africa due to climate chaos. And to that must be added the European Union, which previously has a total dependence on the mineral resources that Russia gave it at a low price and which will now have to look elsewhere. It also spills out a few drops of populism backed by economic powers and growing media manipulation. In the confinement, fears of running out of supplies and shaking for several weeks have already been trained, while the Western middle class is more afraid of ceasing to exist due to precariousness. See how all this raises the foam of militarism, and then you serve the very hot drink. Et voilà: with this formula we will be able to get European countries into wars too, seeking to secure vital resources to maintain a life that is already impossible. And in addition, this military expansion has to be sold, saying that it is to defend itself (or that will be believed by the European media).

The war in Ukraine is not the last: It's the first of the Energy Reduction Age, which marks the breakpoint. This reduction, if not done quickly and in a coordinated manner, will go hand in hand and some countries will crush others because of the lack of honesty of governments refusing to acknowledge that we have clashed against the biophysical borders of the planet. In that chaotic and messy energy cut, there will always be a war in some country of Ukraine, Europe, South America, Asia or Africa. Right now there are 17 other active wars, in addition to the front page newspapers of the first world (which sometimes looks like the last one's portal).

But another energy reduction is possible. It has always been and still is possible. In a way that allows the limits of the planet and limits the excesses of civilized man. One way of admitting that what we have before us is not the enemy to plunder, but to embrace it forcefully, would be better. Let us break this bad wheel and cooperate for everyone before it is late. There was no war. Unfortunately, they are the rascals that make wars and wars!