The rise of the two nationalist parties, which control almost three quarters of the chamber between them, is evident. Spanish parties have fallen: the PP, since 2001, has gone from 19 to 6 seats, and the PSE-EE, since the lehendakari Patxi López, has gone from 9 to 10. Meanwhile, the spectrum of Podemos, including Sumar, is about to disappear according to surveys. In the last legislature, Elkarrekin Podemos has had 6 representatives.

The reader who follows the election campaign and the excess of the polls knows that all the headlines say the same thing, that there is a strong competition between the PNV and EH Bildu that has not been seen long ago. The first force may be the sovereign coalition for the first time, but that obviously does not shield governability, unless EH Bildu reaches an absolute majority or reaches an agreement with another party to reach the 38-seat limit. Government can form in a minority, but it is a unlikely formula.

So there can be change, in number of parliamentarians or perhaps also in votes, but always by parties. In fact, in view of the possible pacts, the PSE-EE, which will surely be the third force, will have the key, as it happens in many municipalities of Araba, Bizkaia and Gipuzkoa. It is predictable, in the absence of surprises, that if the sum of the two gives the opportunity to preside over the PNV candidate in exchange for government with the PNV and to run three or four departments.

The election campaign officially starts on 5 April, but the cycle has been long since, political parties have been pulling the cart since the fall. On 24 November it was known, with a leak, that Iñigo Urkullu would not remain in the leadership of the nationalists, that he would not re-nominate candidate, who decided so in Sabin Etxea, and before the powders rose further, in a few hours they chained the news of Imanol Pradales' candidature. They have had time to make Pradales a little more known, but it has been far from them on 21 April, a date that was also rumoured since January. To prevent the legislature from becoming more complicated, until mid-February Urkullu and his cabinet remained silent on 21 April. The official communication was held with a press conference on 22 February.

Sectoral pledges Osakidetza and housing

Thus, since the focus has been on social issues, the upcoming elections should be of interest to citizens. Inevitably, there was only one focus on them, because the models and policies of one and the other are in the drift and in bankruptcy, and those are the people who are paying daily.

These two spheres of society have their own society, public, or such a distinction can be made. In general, of course, those who go to Osakidetza the most are those over 50 years of age, and the youngest, 30 to 45 years of age, if they have young children. On the contrary, young people are more affected by the increase in the prices of new housing and by the lack of hire contracts. The distinction between these ages and subjects should be made in this way, albeit cautious.

Look now at voters of those ages. Small data from all surveys indicate that among the population under 50 years of age HD Bildu is the one that receives the most votes, while the PNV is the one that receives the most votes at the highest of that symbolic border. Historically, the Abertzale Left has supported citizens under the age of 30, and over the years has managed to increase this limitation. However, the hegemony of NIP in those over 50 years of age is very great.

So things, the landscape of the campaign looks like other eyes. With the arrival of April and in a context in which the media machinery has been further strengthened, the course of the call between the PNV and Pradales is clarifying, committing to extend to seven years the monthly aid received for each child up to three years, of 200 euros.

The strategy of the nationalists has been the exercise of introducing the elbow and making room for the hard battle that exists in this intermediate age, between 30 and 45 years. But it is nothing new: Sabin Etxea, through the Government, has already started these thirillas work earlier. In addition, a system of aid for the free provision of children ' s schools is under way and, with a slight decrease in age, the Government has recently strengthened the emancipation programmes.

Osakidetza has the most to have, but it does not have an easy solution. Political parties have extended comprehensive health care, streamlined waiting lists and made similar pledges. The PNV has put millions of euros on the table to innovate. The innovation of the EH Bildu programme has been based on cooperation and communication between health professionals. However, the PNV has been able to move forward and make proposals before addressing Osakidetza’s criticisms.

Abandoned promises: sovereignty and nationality

Beyond the strengthening of the statute of autonomy, unlike Catalonia, there is no hunger for independence in Álava, Bizkaia and Gipuzkoa. This idea has been completely removed from the front line.

The Basque Country is perhaps the topic that can generate the most unity between the two nationalist parties. It would be interesting for society, even for the majority, given the parliamentary preponderance of the nationalist parties, to break these paths, but the issue has been largely outside the campaign. EH Bildu calls on the PNV to support the government of sovereigns if sovereigns get more seats than nationalists. In addition to the Basque Country, this government could provide the opportunity to advance sovereignty and nationality.

Polls: coalition government can be repeated

EiTB Focusa of March envisaged a draw between the PNV and EH Bildu, although in number of votes the nationalist prevailed. The February Government Sociometer said the same thing: 27 seats each. By contrast, according to Aztiker, EH Bildu and the PNV would have 29 seats. In this case, however, the sum of PNV and PSE-EE would allow reaching the majority of 38. The incumbent of all the published surveys is that there would be a chance to repeat the coalition government.

As the election day approaches, but both EiTB Focusa and the surveys conducted by the company 40dB for the Hurry group say that EH Bildu would be the one with the most seats, 30.

As for the other parties, in the absence of surprises, the PSE-EE will be the third most voted and it is expected that the 10 seats it has at present will be maintained, perhaps even one or the other. Like the PP, it will either be left with 6 current representatives or won one more; and speaking of the extreme right, Vox, the only representative he has today, may be about to miss out.

Finally, regarding Podemosis and Sumarri, the expectation is articulated with a question mark: will they be able to survive? The surveys say everything, but if the results of both come to two representatives, half bad.