In principle, Imanol Pradales will be the new president. However, it will need the support of the PSE-EE. Because EH Bildu and the PNV have been tied in the number of seats. This was unthinkable until recently. What has changed in the competitive structure of the party system in the CAPV?

Since 1980, the CAPV aspect system has been defined as a polarized plural system. In other words, historically it has had three characteristics:

One. Presence of a Basque party that does not recognize the legitimacy of the Spanish and French states (Left Abertzale: in the eyes of the system “radical nationalism or anti-system”).

Two. Existence of a Basque party that has occupied the political center in exchange for legitimizing the Spanish transition (PNV: in the eyes of the “moderate nationalism” system).

Three. Inability to form alternative governments between the opposition parties due to the ideological distance between them (Left Abertzale and the rest: EA, EB, PSE-EE, PP…).

This competitive structure has given “stability” to the autonomic system. But it has also hampered nationalist and left-wing alliances on the national and social axis.

At some point, during the Lizarra Garazi era, the mentioned competitive skeleton was questioned. Thus, the PNV was willing to move through the political centre and to agree with the Basque left a roadmap towards sovereignty. The process did not move forward. This test was not cost-effective for both parties. In the 2009 elections, Left Abertzale was illegalized – annulling about 100,000 votes. On the contrary, the PNV was excluded from government by the PSE-EE and the PP.

On the part of the PNV, since 2012 its strategic commitment has been to establish an alliance with the PSE-EE to secure the presidency, that is, to be a “moderate” party in the polarized plural system.

In the case of the Abertzale Left, the strategy was exactly the opposite. He wanted to be outside the categories and dichotomies imposed by the plural system polarized, system/antisystem or radical/moderate. To do so, he created the EH Bildu coalition along with other parties. This political renewal has allowed EH Bildu to reduce the ideological distances with the other parties and immerse itself in the dispute of the political centre from the point of view of competition, without giving up its origin, as are the 27 seats it has won. However, the alliance between the PNV and the PSE-EE limits EH Bildu's political influence.

This legislature can therefore be a milestone in consolidating the competitive structure of the party system of the future. Will EH Bildu be able to break the current inertia of the polarized plural system without being trapped in the moderate plural system?