This Thursday, the Israeli Army launched more than 200 attacks in Lebanon and Hezbollah has launched more than 50 rockets and missiles against Israel. The Israeli attacks have already caused more than 700 deaths and thousands of injuries, and more than 90,000 people have been forced to flee their places of residence.

Israel has launched most of the rockets and missiles launched by Hezbollah when they were in the air, but they fear that if they get worse, they will be able to control them all. This Thursday, for example, Hezbollah once again attacked several military and civilian areas of Haifa. The Israeli Army is now trying to destroy the entire mobile rocket and missile structure that Hezbollah has well guarded.

In Tel Aviv, the Thursday night sirens were also heard on the occasion of a missile launched by the Yemeni Huties. Finally, it was shot down in the air by the defenses, but as seen in this video released by Al Jazeera, terror spread to the population.

On the basis of the Israeli attacks, two reasons have been put forward, one "for their citizens to return to northern Israel" and one "for their defence". The data, however, show that the most serious attacks from 7 October to the present are five times more frequent than those perpetrated by Israel in Lebanon by Hezbollah towards Israel; since that date, Israel has killed 711 people in Lebanon and Hezbollah to 26.

International cease-fire calls

The UN, the EU and the United States have called for a ceasefire, but Israel has responded that its aim is for the citizens of northern Israel to return to their homes and will not give in to their efforts until they have succeeded. United States And France proposed a 21-day ceasefire, but Israel rejected it at first. However, in a second writing, Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the United States is key to any solution in the Middle East and that "it will be taken into account".

However, these cease-fire calls are becoming less and less credible, especially those of the United States, and many international actors regard them as cosmetic, not least because Israel’s attacks are being carried out with weapons permanently equipped since 7 October last year.

Shadow of the 2006 invasion

Last Wednesday, Israeli Army General Hezi Halevi informed soldiers that the attacks were being carried out "to prepare for a possible ground attack", with troops prepared and awaiting orders. In addition to aircraft, the shadow of the 2006 invasion can be seen on the border between the two countries.

Israel launched the attack on 17 July 2006 and on 5 August only 10,000 soldiers managed to move six kilometres inland, resulting in a military offensive. They met Hezbollah's unforeseen resistance. The ceasefire was signed on 14 August in Geneva. This invasion brought more than 20.00 deaths to Lebanon and destroyed the southern part of the country and much of Beirut. In the Israeli side, 157 soldiers died, according to the Associated Press, and Israel had to transfer some 300,000 civilians from the northern lands. However, Hezbollah has been waged with the war, as it managed to withdraw from Israel. This withdrawal earned him great prestige in the Arab world.

What would happen now?

Nobody knows, but what is clear is that Israel has a great deal of confidence in itself and in the support that its allies will give it, and that is because of what has happened from 7 October to today. Two are the main lines, on the one hand, it is believed that Hezbollah has developed a great force since 2006, both in terms of the public, arms and training.

Team xii was in favour of Bashar Al-Assad in the war that began in Syria in 2011, where his soldiers have received extensive training. The other point of view is that Hezbollah is no longer going to surprise Israel, as happened in 2006. For example, according to Mohanad Hage Alien, deputy director of the Middle East Carnegie research centre, “Israel’s infiltration and technology capacity is much greater than in 2006, and Hezbollah’s morality is much weaker than it was then.”

But, in addition to Lebanese, there are those who believe that Israel, in addition to beating Hezbollah, wants with this operation to turn its gaze towards Gaza and the West Bank. It follows its strategy of evacuating gauze, and the next step will be the order of evacuating the north of the Gaza Strip completely. At the same time, many Palestinians hope that attacks by Israeli troops and settlers will also intensify in the West Bank, as explained in the following article.