argia.eus
INPRIMATU
Geopolitical dreams buried in Gaza
Mikel Aramendi 2023ko azaroaren 22a

Customizing the error would be making another mistake. But to the grave and beyond, Jake Sullivan, U.S. President Joe Bide's National Security Advisor, will be in charge of taking him back, as he said on September 29 at The Atlantic Festival: “The Middle East region is now quieter than in the past two decades.” A week later, on October 7, when the Gaza massacre was still in its infancy, The Atlantic brought the phrase to the line of a very extensive comment on its web, because something I had heard in dreams had not been every time.

No, it wasn't anecdote. Much has been said, and they will have to do more in post-war Israel than the preliminary ones of 7 October. But even though it's been more silent so far, America's is a higher step. Sullivan was or should be the most informed person in the world. The dozen and a half of today ' s leading power is the last pyramid of the work of the information and intelligence services and is responsible for transmitting to the president in detail all the aggression, despite the conflicts and intrigues between the services.

Moreover, on this “knowledge” we must then build foreign policy strategies and projects that, above all, will be addressed by the Secretary of State. So the last eye of a long chain and the nail holding a long rope was Sullivan's mistake. In the world's foremost power, look.

There is no doubt that those words of Sullivan in September fully reflected the concept of the Biden administration at the time. They were not evaluations or personal reflections, nor anecdotal outputs. This could be summarized in one word: “Corridor”.

Troubleshooting

Worked with discretion for months, the IMEC India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor project was signed on 10 September under the chairmanship of the G-20 Summit in New Delhi. Project of a huge communication and transport link (fiber, train, sea, road) with the Middle East as a mass centre.

According to the official statement, the Corridor sought to strengthen economic development by promoting connectivity and economic integration between Asia, the Persian Gulf and Europe, and would reach from India to Europe, through the Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel and Greece. It was said aloud that, at the expense of the United States, it was coming to compete with the BRI of China or the new silk road; and more concealed, it could be noted that the Suez channel could also be removed.

The list of promoters in the corridor was as expressive as those who did not appear. In South Asia, India yes, but in Pakistan or Bangladesh no, the cause is not innate. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Jordan yes, but not Iran, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, Yemen -- and Egypt. Israel and Greece do, but Turkey does not. But it wasn't because they also invited them but said no, as Erdogan clearly explained.

What has failed? Obviously, consideration of the Palestinian question as such, without a solution, depreciated, and, in passing, undermining its maritime capacity in the Arab, Muslim and Southern world.

It should not be particularly quick to realize that this Corridor would basically connect Saudi Arabia with two big fuel markets, India and Europe, but leaving the road barriers to Emirates and Israel. And that the EE.UU, more specifically Blinken, thus reached the square of the circle, covering the awkward retirement of Afghanistan and implementing the amendment to the entire deceased Eurasian doctrine of Bzerzinski.

Through a single solution, Washington resolved many foreign policy problems: To compete with China with the fat; to link India with the western world, more solidly than the Indo-Pacific retolias; to isolate Iran and Russia and its satellites in the region; to give Europe something substitute for Russian fuels, but with control in the hands of third parties; to semiturate rebel allies such as Turkey and Egypt... But above all, reaffirm Israel’s Dominican missus in the Middle East, glued to Saudi Arabia.

The kindness of the project was such that at home, even in the U.S. session room, you could hardly have enemies. The Corridor was a clear continuation of the Abraham Accords, despite Trump.

Wash milk

The bed suite is moved to the ground on 7 October in Gaza. And since then, this uncontrollable Leviathan has been plunged under a bomb in the eastern Mediterranean, which the United States itself has grown for decades.

What has failed? Obviously, consideration of the Palestinian question as such, without a solution, depreciated, and, in passing, undermining its maritime capacity in the Arab, Muslim and Southern world. And what would be so positive: The institutional brutality that has been attaining the naturalness of Israel, the fact that no one can do their thing without respecting anything, the unwillingness to be aware that it is not unfair, but devastating. But all of them are ancient highmarks of Western centrism.

And you don't have to wait for profound changes. Less investment. The ideas that have begun to be published among us with the aim of “predicting the future of Gaza” show, with hardly any exceptions, that the keys to the problems are not intended to be touched in the West and that the future is intended as a tuned photograph of the past. Yes, no pasillos.Sin however,
in the reality of the Middle East innovations are already beginning to reflect: The entente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, incredible until recently, but now starting to work without the Chinese godfather; the neo-Otomanism of Erdogan, the kemalism to bury and turn its back on Europe; the strategy of the “armed peoples” of Hezbola, with or without Sixteen...

It is also a black cloud that was barely contemplated before, on the horizon of the Middle East: the black cloud of nuclear weapons. Although mango Eliyahu would not have said anything, there would be the ghost, but now you can wager that the learning that will come from Gaza the most powerful in the region will go out there.

Many beliefs were buried on 7 October.